TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Pavel Plakushchyi vs Maksym Deineha 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161517117117––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:00 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeMaksym Deineha to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Maksym Deineha @ 1.73 · Lost
How it is goingPavel Plakushchyi above · Maksym Deineha below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 15-17
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 85 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Maksym Deineha at 56.5%
85 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Plakushchyi 1–1 Maksym Deineha Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pick
Sealed 07:00Sent to Pro: Maksym Deineha @ 1.73 · Lost
56.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Deineha
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Plakushchyi 1617 vs Deineha 1683
Deineha
Wrong
both rated, 66 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plakushchyi 60% vs Deineha 20%
Plakushchyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plakushchyi 40% vs Deineha 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Plakushchyi +1 · Deineha -4
Deineha
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Deineha) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Deineha form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlakushchyi 2.00 / Deineha 1.727
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Deineha)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218632
Plakushchyi2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 87 of 258
Down 0–1, comes back15% 24 of 159
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 91
Deineha1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 30 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it84% 21 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePlakushchyi1wins
AwayDeineha1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPlakushchyiDeinehaP − DBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match46.543.0+3.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlakushchyiDeinehaBasisWin rate · lifetime327 / 734 vs 53 / 9244.6%57.6%327 / 734 vs 53 / 92Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.439.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DeinehaPlakushchyi 2.00/Deineha 1.73
Miss
What we said
56.5%
Deineha · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Maksym Deineha @ 1.73 · Lost
What happened
3–1
Plakushchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 30 · 07:50P. Plakushchyi48111511113M. Deineha37617771
LSep 28 · 14:30P. Plakushchyi45111410101M. Deineha49131212123
P. Plakushchyi10
WSep 30 · 06:50A. Hrabskyi1.8078171142P. Plakushchyi1.911111158113LSep 29 · 17:53P. Plakushchyi2.637660A. Lievshin1.441111113WSep 29 · 16:00P. Plakushchyi3.25111165113A. Yurkov1.3356111182WSep 29 · 15:00A. Lievshin1.4058111182P. Plakushchyi2.75111168113LSep 29 · 14:00P. Plakushchyi1.8391090V. Marushchak1.831112113LSep 29 · 12:30A. Hrabskyi1.839111111113P. Plakushchyi1.8311761352LSep 28 · 18:00Y. Shmyndra1.571111113P. Plakushchyi2.254870LSep 28 · 17:00P. Plakushchyi3.25711121052A. Lievshin1.331191012113WSep 28 · 16:00P. Plakushchyi2.0011114113A. Hrabskyi1.73981191LSep 28 · 14:30P. Plakushchyi1.91111410101M. Deineha1.80131212123
M. Deineha10
LSep 30 · 05:50O. Kolbasenko1.801111113M. Deineha1.917350LSep 28 · 18:30M. Deineha1.91713914172A. Hrabskyi1.8011111112193LSep 28 · 16:30Y. Shmyndra1.671211110113M. Deineha2.10101161252LSep 28 · 15:30M. Deineha2.005870A. Yurkov1.731111113WSep 28 · 14:30P. Plakushchyi1.91111410101M. Deineha1.80131212123LSep 28 · 13:00M. Deineha2.50811951A. Lievshin1.5011811113LSep 26 · 12:50M. Deineha1.911111831V. Savoliuk1.8081311113WSep 26 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.3871111662M. Deineha1.53118811113WSep 26 · 08:50O. Seliuchenko1.8381111752M. Deineha1.83118611113WSep 26 · 07:50M. Deineha1.831111123O. Zhyrnov1.8355100
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