TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Strutinskiy vs Anatolii Nazarov 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111151311117––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:22 and never touched: 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Strutinskiy to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Strutinskiy above · Anatolii Nazarov below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 75 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Oleksandr Strutinskiy at 62.1%
75 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Strutinskiy 86–47 Anatolii Nazarov Anatolii Nazarov has won 47 of their 133 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:2262.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 1.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Strutinskiy
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
86-47 in 133
Strutinskiy
Correct
gap of 39 in 133, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strutinskiy 1748 vs Nazarov 1608
Strutinskiy
Correct
both rated, 139 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strutinskiy 60% vs Nazarov 40%
Strutinskiy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strutinskiy 80% vs Nazarov 40%
Strutinskiy
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strutinskiy +3 · Nazarov +1
Strutinskiy
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Strutinskiy) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrutinskiy 1.571 / Nazarov 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Strutinskiy)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266025
Strutinskiy1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 06)
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 147 of 240
Up 2–0, closes it87% 71 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it71% 105 of 147
Nazarov2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 03)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 44 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back24% 20 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back12% 5 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrutinskiy8wins
AwayNazarov2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStrutinskiy leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrutinskiy71.4%5 of 7
AwayNazarov0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strutinskiy7Nazarov3n = 10Strutinskiy took 7 of 10
S2Strutinskiy5Nazarov5n = 10split evenly
S3Strutinskiy6Nazarov4n = 10Strutinskiy took 6 of 10
S4Strutinskiy6Nazarov2n = 8Strutinskiy took 6 of 8
S5Strutinskiy3Nazarov1n = 4Strutinskiy took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrutinskiyNazarovS − NBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.037.1+4.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrutinskiyNazarovBasisWin rate · lifetime430 / 824 vs 336 / 62752.2%53.6%430 / 824 vs 336 / 627Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StrutinskiyStrutinskiy 1.57/Nazarov 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Strutinskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Strutinskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 10:40O. Strutinskiy4161113113A. Nazarov341151171
LOct 3 · 05:50O. Strutinskiy351110681A. Nazarov3841211113
WOct 1 · 12:30O. Strutinskiy3811511113A. Nazarov27311941
LSep 25 · 09:20O. Strutinskiy4611119782A. Nazarov45571111113
WSep 21 · 17:00O. Strutinskiy46114911113A. Nazarov4281111572
WSep 18 · 17:00O. Strutinskiy49611912113A. Nazarov48119111072
WSep 15 · 11:50O. Strutinskiy3711411113A. Nazarov29411951
WSep 14 · 12:00O. Strutinskiy381413113A. Nazarov32121190
WSep 1 · 11:20O. Strutinskiy579101313123A. Nazarov5511121111102
WAug 3 · 15:30O. Strutinskiy331111113A. Nazarov217590
O. Strutinskiy10
WOct 6 · 12:20A. Derevianko2.10811951O. Strutinskiy1.6711811113WOct 6 · 11:20E. Hrytsenko2.50114531O. Strutinskiy1.50111211113WOct 6 · 09:50I. Nitchenko1.9110113111O. Strutinskiy1.8012911133LOct 6 · 07:50O. Zhyrnov3.259111110113O. Strutinskiy1.3311841292LOct 6 · 05:50M. Mrykh2.0071111113O. Strutinskiy1.73119581WOct 5 · 17:40A. Derevianko2.10117101152O. Strutinskiy1.67811127113WOct 5 · 16:10O. Strutinskiy1.671411113V. Maksuta2.1012260WOct 5 · 14:10Y. Riadynskyi1.6769110O. Strutinskiy2.101111133WOct 5 · 12:10E. Hrytsenko2.251476101O. Strutinskiy1.57121111123WOct 5 · 11:10O. Zhyrnov2.75117931O. Strutinskiy1.4031111113
A. Nazarov10
LOct 9 · 11:40O. Seliuchenko1.501111113A. Nazarov2.505560WOct 3 · 11:50A. Nazarov1.8311119113M. Mrykh1.83791151LOct 3 · 10:20A. Nazarov1.8091090A. Derevianko1.911112113LOct 3 · 08:50A. Nazarov2.105670V. Savoliuk1.671111113LOct 3 · 07:20A. Nazarov1.57511110O. Zhyrnov2.251113133WOct 3 · 05:50A. Nazarov2.2041211113O. Strutinskiy1.611110681LOct 1 · 18:00Y. Riadynskyi1.571211116133A. Nazarov2.251013911112WOct 1 · 17:00A. Nazarov2.1011119113V. Savoliuk1.67971181WOct 1 · 16:00A. Nazarov2.381111113O. Seliuchenko1.538890LOct 1 · 14:30A. Nazarov1.73851171A. Derevianko2.0011119113
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