TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Milan Vrabec vs David Mutl 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113911117911––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:58 and never touched: 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeMilan Vrabec to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Vrabec above · David Mutl below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 82 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Milan Vrabec at 55.3%
82 points played in total.
H2H Milan Vrabec 5–3 David Mutl David Mutl has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5855.3%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 2.6pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vrabec
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Vrabec
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vrabec 1166 vs Mutl 1161
Vrabec
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vrabec 40% vs Mutl 20%
Vrabec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vrabec 50% vs Mutl 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vrabec -1 · Mutl -3
Mutl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Vrabec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mutl form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVrabec 1.727 / Mutl 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Vrabec)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13264727
Vrabec1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite72% won 76 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it90% 55 of 61
Mutl2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 37 of 94
Down 0–1, comes back16% 9 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeVrabec5wins
AwayMutl3wins
2 of 8 to a deciderVrabec leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVrabec100%4 of 4
AwayMutl75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vrabec4Mutl4n = 8split evenly
S2Vrabec3Mutl5n = 8Mutl took 5 of 8
S3Vrabec5Mutl3n = 8Vrabec took 5 of 8
S4Vrabec2Mutl2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricVrabecMutlV − MBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match37.034.6+2.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVrabecMutlBasisWin rate · lifetime184 / 360 vs 77 / 16151.1%47.8%184 / 360 vs 77 / 161Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.135.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VrabecVrabec 1.73/Mutl 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Vrabec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mutl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LOct 9 · 07:00M. Vrabec401191191D. Mutl4213117113
LOct 4 · 14:30M. Vrabec26101330D. Mutl381215113
WSep 30 · 06:30M. Vrabec351113113D. Mutl2791170
LSep 14 · 07:00M. Vrabec259790D. Mutl331111113
WSep 7 · 09:30M. Vrabec3711114113D. Mutl32971151
WSep 7 · 06:00M. Vrabec331111113D. Mutl100460
WJun 16 · 09:30M. Vrabec531191111113D. Mutl4513115882
WJun 16 · 06:30M. Vrabec47139113113D. Mutl50111181192
M. Vrabec10
WOct 9 · 08:30M. Vrabec1.5011311113M. Smesny2.50411781LOct 9 · 06:00J. Grohsgott1.73111199113M. Vrabec2.0086111142WOct 7 · 08:58M. Vrabec1.57711811113J. Potensky2.2511611772WOct 7 · 08:30J. Potensky2.10691141M. Vrabec1.6711114113LOct 7 · 07:30M. Vrabec3.75411521J. Svec1.2511711113LOct 7 · 06:30L. Novotny1.61891111113M. Vrabec2.2011114972WOct 4 · 16:59M. Vrabec1.721111113V. Stach2.005080WOct 4 · 16:30Z. Kasinski1.5711113642M. Vrabec2.25221111113WOct 4 · 15:30M. Vrabec2.0091111113V. Stach1.73117881LOct 4 · 14:30D. Mutl2.381215113M. Vrabec1.53101330
D. Mutl10
WOct 9 · 08:00J. Grohsgott1.50911101192D. Mutl2.50119129113LOct 9 · 06:30D. Mutl1.4449111192M. Smesny2.63111194113LOct 7 · 02:00D. Mutl1.831161121L. Madle1.8381113113LOct 7 · 01:00D. Mutl4.337111171S. Mazanek1.2011134113WOct 7 · 00:00M. Syroha2.0091181172D. Mutl1.73118118113LOct 6 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.5311117113D. Mutl2.38721131LOct 5 · 03:30S. Mazanek1.351111113D. Mutl2.908880LOct 5 · 01:30D. Mutl3.504760S. Mazanek1.281111113WOct 5 · 00:30J. Grohsgott1.40116591D. Mutl2.7571111113WOct 4 · 14:30D. Mutl2.381215113M. Vrabec1.53101330
Upcoming Matches
M. Vrabec
Nothing scheduled
D. Mutl
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.