TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Marek Zaskodny vs Patrik Marsalek 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115116114––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:28 and never touched: 73.9% is still 73.9%
Graded at full timeMarek Zaskodny to win
73.9%
73.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMarek Zaskodny above · Patrik Marsalek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 48 set 3, 11-4 · our read held Marek Zaskodny at 73.9%
48 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2873.9%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
short by 3.9pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Zaskodny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Zaskodny 1600 vs Marsalek 1525
Zaskodny
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zaskodny 60% vs Marsalek 40%
Zaskodny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zaskodny 50% vs Marsalek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zaskodny -1 · Marsalek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Zaskodny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marsalek form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZaskodny 1.285 / Marsalek 3.50
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Zaskodny)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13263590
Zaskodny1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 07)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 22 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it82% 18 of 22
Marsalek3.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Oct 03)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 19 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back30% 7 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricZaskodnyMarsalekBasisWin rate · lifetime124 / 299 vs 59 / 12641.5%46.8%124 / 299 vs 59 / 126Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZaskodnyZaskodny 1.28/Marsalek 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.9%
Zaskodny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Zaskodny won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Zaskodny10
WOct 8 · 19:40M. Zaskodny1.831111113D. Stusek1.838690WOct 8 · 18:40M. Zaskodny1.501111113I. Heuman2.505260LOct 7 · 17:14M. Zaskodny2.2595120F. Chaloupka1.571111143WOct 7 · 15:45M. Zaskodny2.00311115113F. Chaloupka1.7311881152WOct 7 · 14:45M. Zaskodny2.00111259113D. Skulina1.73910111172WOct 7 · 13:45M. Zaskodny1.831111123D. Stusek1.8399100LSep 23 · 16:48M. Zaskodny2.7591112121J. Skvrna1.4011714143WSep 23 · 16:10J. Skvrna1.306111191M. Zaskodny3.4011813113LSep 23 · 15:10M. Zaskodny2.207460A. Baros1.611111113WSep 23 · 13:40D. Sarganek1.83471371M. Zaskodny1.83111111113
P. Marsalek10
LOct 8 · 19:10P. Marsalek2.638480D. Stusek1.441111113LOct 3 · 08:55P. Marsalek2.501111491F. Chaloupka1.5013811113LOct 3 · 08:15D. Velky Jr1.671212511113P. Marsalek2.10101411682WOct 3 · 07:15P. Marsalek3.40811514113F. Chaloupka1.30115111262LOct 3 · 05:45B. Moravec1.44111111113P. Marsalek2.63913421WOct 1 · 20:40J. Travnicek1.50310100P. Marsalek2.501112123LOct 1 · 20:15P. Marsalek1.618490D. Vitasek2.201111113LOct 1 · 18:45J. Travnicek1.6112511113P. Marsalek2.201011881LOct 1 · 18:15I. Heuman1.7311117123P. Marsalek2.003511101WSep 20 · 09:15P. Marsalek1.531213113J. Przybyla2.38101140
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