TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ondrej Kaderabek vs Ladislav Dobias 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181012811119119
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:43 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kaderabek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Kaderabek above · Ladislav Dobias below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 100 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Ondrej Kaderabek at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kaderabek 9–4 Ladislav Dobias Ladislav Dobias has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:4354.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Dobias
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Kaderabek
Correct
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaderabek 1716 vs Dobias 1646
Kaderabek
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaderabek 80% vs Dobias 0%
Kaderabek
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaderabek 60% vs Dobias 30%
Kaderabek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaderabek +4 · Dobias -6
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kaderabek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaderabek 1.833 / Dobias 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kaderabek)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13261321
Kaderabek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Dobias1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaderabek7wins
AwayDobias3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKaderabek leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaderabek100%6 of 6
AwayDobias75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaderabek6Dobias4n = 10Kaderabek took 6 of 10
S2Kaderabek7Dobias3n = 10Kaderabek took 7 of 10
S3Kaderabek4Dobias6n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S4Kaderabek4Dobias5n = 9Dobias took 5 of 9
S5Kaderabek3Dobias0n = 3Kaderabek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaderabekDobiasK − DBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.139.4+0.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaderabekDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime206 / 398 vs 448 / 82051.8%54.6%206 / 398 vs 448 / 820Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.941.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KaderabekKaderabek 1.83/Dobias 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kaderabek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kaderabek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 06:45O. Kaderabek511110811113L. Dobias4981211992
WSep 15 · 06:45O. Kaderabek491111115113L. Dobias4313391172
WJul 31 · 06:45O. Kaderabek3811511113L. Dobias32911391
WJul 30 · 15:45O. Kaderabek44111273113L. Dobias47710111182
WJun 9 · 07:45O. Kaderabek3611311113L. Dobias34911591
LMay 26 · 10:45O. Kaderabek3981110101L. Dobias4111612123
LMay 25 · 08:18O. Kaderabek36912961L. Dobias43111011113
WMay 25 · 07:15O. Kaderabek44111110123L. Dobias365912101
WMay 21 · 10:15O. Kaderabek361312113L. Dobias28111070
LApr 30 · 16:29O. Kaderabek28711731L. Dobias4111811113
O. Kaderabek10
WOct 8 · 05:45O. Kaderabek1.801111113M. Kocvara1.917790WOct 5 · 12:44T. Liska2.258121371O. Kaderabek1.57111015113WOct 5 · 11:15O. Kaderabek1.7311117113L. Rulc2.00741141WOct 5 · 10:15O. Kaderabek1.6741111113M. Makara2.10115781LOct 5 · 09:15O. Kaderabek1.6714881132T. Liska2.101211119113LOct 4 · 12:23M. Kocvara2.0011912113O. Kaderabek1.738111031WOct 4 · 11:15O. Kaderabek1.801011115113M. Kocvara1.9112441182LOct 4 · 10:15O. Kaderabek2.50410141192L. Heinzl1.501112125113WOct 4 · 09:15O. Kaderabek2.00121113113R. Pisa1.731431181LOct 2 · 08:23M. Vyskocil2.501111113O. Kaderabek1.509390
L. Dobias10
LOct 8 · 05:15M. Bouska1.571117113L. Dobias2.2551590LOct 7 · 16:19L. Dobias1.807514101L. Heinzl1.91111112123LOct 7 · 15:45M. Zelinka1.8051111113L. Dobias1.91116581LOct 7 · 14:45L. Heinzl2.101113123L. Dobias1.67611100LOct 7 · 13:15S. Rejent2.38119134113L. Dobias1.53511111182LOct 7 · 08:53M. Kocvara2.256111111113L. Dobias1.5711513382WOct 7 · 07:15J. Rochowanski2.3811113582L. Dobias1.53691111113WOct 7 · 06:45L. Dobias1.44111110123M. Kocvara2.637612101WOct 7 · 05:45L. Dobias1.831311113V. Burylov1.8311880LOct 6 · 12:13L. Dobias1.53991181M. Stibor2.3811114113
Upcoming Matches
O. Kaderabek
Nothing scheduled
L. Dobias
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