TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Anna Rzhevska vs Iolanta Yevtodii 3-2 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811115811119118
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:51 and never touched: 74.1% is still 74.1%
Graded at full timeIolanta Yevtodii to win
74.1%
74.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnna Rzhevska above · Iolanta Yevtodii below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 93 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Iolanta Yevtodii at 74.1%
93 points played in total.
H2H Anna Rzhevska 5–7 Iolanta Yevtodii Anna Rzhevska has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 18h before this match
Yevtodii beat Rzhevska 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:5174.1%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 0.9pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Yevtodii
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Yevtodii
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rzhevska 1577 vs Yevtodii 1846
Yevtodii
Wrong
both rated, 269 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rzhevska 20% vs Yevtodii 60%
Yevtodii
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rzhevska 40% vs Yevtodii 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rzhevska -2 · Yevtodii +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Yevtodii) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Yevtodii form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRzhevska 3.25 / Yevtodii 1.333
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Yevtodii)-0.9pp
Setka Cup Women · #13260944
Rzhevska3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 35 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back28% 14 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29
Yevtodii1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 57 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it77% 33 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRzhevska4wins
AwayYevtodii6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderYevtodii leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRzhevska33.3%2 of 6
AwayYevtodii50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rzhevska6Yevtodii4n = 10Rzhevska took 6 of 10
S2Rzhevska6Yevtodii4n = 10Rzhevska took 6 of 10
S3Rzhevska4Yevtodii6n = 10Yevtodii took 6 of 10
S4Rzhevska3Yevtodii6n = 9Yevtodii took 6 of 9
S5Rzhevska2Yevtodii3n = 5Yevtodii took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRzhevskaYevtodiiR − YBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.140.10.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRzhevskaYevtodiiBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 263 vs 109 / 14955.1%73.2%145 / 263 vs 109 / 149Avg sets wonper match2.12.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.440.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
YevtodiiRzhevska 3.25/Yevtodii 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.1%
Yevtodii · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rzhevska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 7 · 11:30A. Rzhevska4711711992I. Yevtodii46811511113
WSep 10 · 08:00A. Rzhevska4491311113I. Yevtodii321111461
WSep 9 · 11:30A. Rzhevska331111113I. Yevtodii187650
LAug 13 · 08:00A. Rzhevska4511128862I. Yevtodii529101111113
WJul 7 · 07:00A. Rzhevska529111011113I. Yevtodii4011512572
WJun 25 · 06:00A. Rzhevska49116912113I. Yevtodii44811111042
LJun 24 · 06:05A. Rzhevska26611541I. Yevtodii3811511113
LJun 18 · 08:30A. Rzhevska4111115862I. Yevtodii50981111113
LMay 30 · 10:35A. Rzhevska36118891I. Yevtodii4291111113
LApr 27 · 10:00A. Rzhevska28741161I. Yevtodii3911116113
A. Rzhevska10
LOct 8 · 07:00A. Rzhevska7.00121011592A. Ovriakh1.081012511113LOct 8 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.141111113A. Rzhevska5.006350LOct 7 · 11:30I. Yevtodii1.33811511113A. Rzhevska3.2511711992LOct 7 · 10:00A. Rzhevska6.009770A. Ovriakh1.111111113WOct 7 · 08:00U. Dronova1.837520A. Rzhevska1.831111113LOct 7 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.171111113A. Rzhevska4.505580LOct 7 · 05:00A. Kurtenko1.801311113A. Rzhevska1.9111680LSep 14 · 11:00Y. Mykhailyk2.631211123A. Rzhevska1.44107100LSep 14 · 10:00S. Yureneva1.611111113A. Rzhevska2.203460WSep 14 · 08:30V. Kurtenko3.2511119662A. Rzhevska1.33991111113
I. Yevtodii10
WOct 8 · 06:30U. Dronova3.504620I. Yevtodii1.281111113WOct 7 · 11:30I. Yevtodii1.33811511113A. Rzhevska3.2511711992WOct 7 · 09:30A. Kurtenko4.50111171152I. Yevtodii1.17913115113LOct 7 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk3.008111110123I. Yevtodii1.36118412102WSep 17 · 10:30I. Yevtodii1.7311121311113D. Kovalova2.0051415692LSep 17 · 09:00I. Yevtodii1.221110581U. Dronova4.0091211113WSep 17 · 07:30I. Yevtodii1.259111111113R. Budnyk3.7511136472LSep 17 · 06:00I. Yevtodii2.10116961A. Ovriakh1.6781111113WSep 17 · 04:30I. Yevtodii1.401111113N. Plokhotniuk2.757950LSep 16 · 11:00I. Yevtodii2.00891251A. Ovriakh1.73111110113
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