TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Anna Rzhevska vs Alina Ovriakh 2-3 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12101012115511911
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:53 and never touched: 90.0% is still 90.0%
Graded at full timeAlina Ovriakh to win
90.0%
90.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAnna Rzhevska above · Alina Ovriakh below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 96 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Alina Ovriakh at 90.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Anna Rzhevska 2–15 Alina Ovriakh Anna Rzhevska has won 2 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5390.0%Our read92.3%to break even at 1.083
short by 2.3pp92.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.083 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.08 (87%)
Ovriakh
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-15 in 17
Ovriakh
Correct
gap of 13 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rzhevska 1582 vs Ovriakh 1948
Ovriakh
Correct
both rated, 367 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rzhevska 40% vs Ovriakh 100%
Ovriakh
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rzhevska 30% vs Ovriakh 90%
Ovriakh
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rzhevska -1 · Ovriakh +7
Ovriakh
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 90% · Strong (leans Ovriakh) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rzhevska form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (14%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRzhevska 7.00 / Ovriakh 1.083
Signal prob.10% / 90%
Edge (Ovriakh)-2.3pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup Women · #13260869
Rzhevska7.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 35 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back28% 14 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29
Ovriakh1.08
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite77% won 53 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it89% 39 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRzhevska1wins
AwayOvriakh9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderOvriakh leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRzhevskan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOvriakh100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rzhevska2Ovriakh8n = 10Ovriakh took 8 of 10
S2Rzhevska4Ovriakh6n = 10Ovriakh took 6 of 10
S3Rzhevska1Ovriakh9n = 10Ovriakh took 9 of 10
S4Rzhevska1Ovriakh4n = 5Ovriakh took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricRzhevskaOvriakhR − OBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match30.337.6−7.3per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRzhevskaOvriakhBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 263 vs 74 / 10455.1%71.2%145 / 263 vs 74 / 104Avg sets wonper match2.12.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OvriakhRzhevska 7.00/Ovriakh 1.08
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
90%
Ovriakh · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ovriakh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 8 · 07:00A. Rzhevska47121011592A. Ovriakh491012511113
LOct 7 · 10:00A. Rzhevska239770A. Ovriakh331111113
LSep 10 · 11:30A. Rzhevska301011451A. Ovriakh4012611113
LSep 9 · 10:00A. Rzhevska32513591A. Ovriakh44111111113
LAug 13 · 11:30A. Rzhevska259970A. Ovriakh331111113
LJul 23 · 07:30A. Rzhevska2031070A. Ovriakh341112113
LJul 22 · 08:30A. Rzhevska301010100A. Ovriakh361212123
LJul 22 · 06:00A. Rzhevska31611681A. Ovriakh4011711113
LJul 7 · 05:00A. Rzhevska225980A. Ovriakh331111113
WJul 6 · 09:39A. Rzhevska43111110113A. Ovriakh34691271
A. Rzhevska10
LOct 8 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.141111113A. Rzhevska5.006350WOct 8 · 05:00A. Rzhevska3.25811811113I. Yevtodii1.3311511982LOct 7 · 11:30I. Yevtodii1.33811511113A. Rzhevska3.2511711992LOct 7 · 10:00A. Rzhevska6.009770A. Ovriakh1.111111113WOct 7 · 08:00U. Dronova1.837520A. Rzhevska1.831111113LOct 7 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.171111113A. Rzhevska4.505580LOct 7 · 05:00A. Kurtenko1.801311113A. Rzhevska1.9111680LSep 14 · 11:00Y. Mykhailyk2.631211123A. Rzhevska1.44107100LSep 14 · 10:00S. Yureneva1.611111113A. Rzhevska2.203460WSep 14 · 08:30V. Kurtenko3.2511119662A. Rzhevska1.33991111113
A. Ovriakh10
WOct 8 · 05:30U. Dronova4.006111191A. Ovriakh1.2211413113WOct 8 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk2.63981581A. Ovriakh1.44111113113WOct 7 · 11:00U. Dronova3.502511111A. Ovriakh1.2811116133WOct 7 · 10:00A. Rzhevska6.009770A. Ovriakh1.111111113WOct 7 · 08:30A. Kurtenko4.336880A. Ovriakh1.201111113WOct 7 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk2.506580A. Ovriakh1.501111113WSep 17 · 11:30R. Budnyk4.00114411102A. Ovriakh1.22611118123LSep 17 · 10:00A. Ovriakh1.4412630N. Plokhotniuk2.631411113WSep 17 · 08:00U. Dronova3.7511119472A. Ovriakh1.25871111113WSep 17 · 06:00I. Yevtodii2.10116961A. Ovriakh1.6781111113
Upcoming Matches
A. Rzhevska
Nothing scheduled
A. Ovriakh
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