TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Marian Melisek vs Jan Marhol 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611611811––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:15 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeJan Marhol to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMarian Melisek above · Jan Marhol below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 53 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Jan Marhol at 56.6%
53 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:1556.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Marhol
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Melisek 1441 vs Marhol 1506
Marhol
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melisek 80% vs Marhol 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melisek 70% vs Marhol 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melisek +3 · Marhol +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Marhol) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marhol form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelisek 2.10 / Marhol 1.666
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Marhol)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13256232
Melisek2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 64 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back24% 17 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 32
Marhol1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 32 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it71% 10 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it66% 19 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelisekMarholBasisWin rate · lifetime229 / 464 vs 131 / 25449.4%51.6%229 / 464 vs 131 / 254Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.940.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MarholMelisek 2.10/Marhol 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Marhol · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Marhol won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Melisek10
WOct 7 · 10:30M. Melisek2.10971111123M. Vorel1.67111189102WOct 7 · 09:30M. Melisek1.5041111113J. Puk2.50116761WOct 6 · 12:39O. Plyska2.10138871M. Melisek1.67111111113LOct 6 · 11:30M. Vana1.61111111113M. Melisek2.20613991WOct 6 · 11:00M. Melisek2.101111113O. Plyska1.674980LOct 6 · 10:00M. Melisek2.63113771A. Dvoracek1.4411111113WOct 3 · 17:12M. Cmil2.7586111142M. Melisek1.40111179113WOct 3 · 15:30M. Melisek1.501112139113M. Vorel2.50614111182WOct 3 · 14:30M. Melisek2.00715812113J. Hanacek1.731113111092LOct 3 · 13:30M. Melisek1.36111115682M. Cmil3.007131311113
J. Marhol10
LOct 7 · 11:00J. Marhol1.5331111872J. Puk2.38119711113WOct 7 · 10:00J. Marhol1.67641211113M. Vorel2.10111110482WSep 24 · 21:03M. Drabek2.504119101J. Marhol1.5011911123WSep 24 · 19:30M. Barton1.8391111682J. Marhol1.83119811113WSep 24 · 19:00J. Marhol2.2012119113M. Vana1.611081171LSep 24 · 18:00J. Marhol1.448111011102M. Drabek2.63116126123WSep 23 · 20:58J. Marhol3.001011118113J. Juppa1.3612951192LSep 23 · 20:00J. Juppa1.531111113J. Marhol2.387870WSep 23 · 19:00J. Tichy1.8311850J. Marhol1.831311113WSep 23 · 17:30J. Botka1.83119781J. Marhol1.8391111113
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