TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jan Marhol vs Jaroslav Puk 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
311119117811711
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:49 and never touched: 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeJan Marhol to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Marhol above · Jaroslav Puk below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 89 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Jan Marhol at 64.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Jan Marhol 3–2 Jaroslav Puk Jaroslav Puk has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:4964.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Marhol
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marhol 1506 vs Puk 1350
Marhol
Wrong
both rated, 156 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marhol 80% vs Puk 40%
Marhol
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marhol 70% vs Puk 30%
Marhol
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marhol +4 · Puk -1
Marhol
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Marhol) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marhol form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarhol 1.533 / Puk 2.375
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Marhol)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13255999
Marhol1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 32 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it71% 10 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it66% 19 of 29
Puk2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 39 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back21% 13 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMarhol3wins
AwayPuk2wins
4 of 5 to a deciderMarhol leads 3–2, and 4 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarhol33.3%1 of 3
AwayPukn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marhol3Puk2n = 5Marhol took 3 of 5
S2Marhol4Puk1n = 5Marhol took 4 of 5
S3Marhol1Puk4n = 5Puk took 4 of 5
S4Marhol3Puk2n = 5Marhol took 3 of 5
S5Marhol2Puk2n = 4split evenly
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricMarholPukM − PBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match47.245.2+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarholPukBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 254 vs 147 / 31351.6%47%131 / 254 vs 147 / 313Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.138.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MarholMarhol 1.53/Puk 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64%
Marhol · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Puk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 15 · 21:05J. Marhol46111171162J. Puk49591113113
WAug 15 · 18:00J. Marhol48811117113J. Puk4511881172
WApr 2 · 07:30J. Marhol45111310113J. Puk354111281
LJan 21 · 06:15J. Marhol4411861182J. Puk47711117113
WDec 22 · 13:00J. Marhol537141011113J. Puk50111212872
J. Marhol10
LOct 7 · 12:34J. Marhol1.28512361M. Melisek3.50111011113WOct 7 · 11:30M. Melisek2.106680J. Marhol1.671111113WOct 7 · 10:00J. Marhol1.67641211113M. Vorel2.10111110482WSep 24 · 21:03M. Drabek2.504119101J. Marhol1.5011911123WSep 24 · 19:30M. Barton1.8391111682J. Marhol1.83119811113WSep 24 · 19:00J. Marhol2.2012119113M. Vana1.611081171LSep 24 · 18:00J. Marhol1.448111011102M. Drabek2.63116126123WSep 23 · 20:58J. Marhol3.001011118113J. Juppa1.3612951192LSep 23 · 20:00J. Juppa1.531111113J. Marhol2.387870WSep 23 · 19:00J. Tichy1.8311850J. Marhol1.831311113
J. Puk10
LOct 7 · 12:00M. Vorel1.8081111113J. Puk1.91116781LOct 7 · 09:30M. Melisek1.5041111113J. Puk2.50116761WOct 1 · 12:28J. Jnr1.911110117132J. Puk1.80612811153LOct 1 · 11:30J. Puk2.505670M. Melisek1.501111113WOct 1 · 10:30J. Puk2.3881111113A. Dvoracek1.53116731LOct 1 · 09:30J. Puk1.7314116372J. Jnr2.001261111113LSep 29 · 08:53J. Puk1.80117831M. Vorel1.9161111113LSep 29 · 07:45J. Puk1.67881171M. Vorel2.1011119113WSep 29 · 06:15P. Hlina1.441176101J. Puk2.6361111123LSep 29 · 05:45A. Sys2.38125115113J. Puk1.53101191172
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