TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jakub Dufek Jnr vs Jaroslav Puk 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11610121187111315
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingJakub Dufek Jnr above · Jaroslav Puk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 13-15
Point 104 set 5, 13-15
104 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dufek Jnr 2–1 Jaroslav Puk Jaroslav Puk has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Jnr beat Puk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Puk form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.909 / Puk 1.80
Setka Cup · #13227932
Jnr1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog50% won 80 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back29% 22 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Puk1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite50% won 18 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it73% 16 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeJnr2wins
AwayPuk1wins
3 of 3 to a deciderJnr leads 2–1, and 3 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr1Puk2n = 3Puk took 2 of 3
S2Jnr1Puk2n = 3Puk took 2 of 3
S3Jnr2Puk1n = 3Jnr took 2 of 3
S4Jnr2Puk1n = 3Jnr took 2 of 3
S5Jnr2Puk1n = 3Jnr took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricJnrPukJ − PBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match45.343.0+2.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrPukBasisWin rate · lifetime243 / 480 vs 146 / 31350.6%46.7%243 / 480 vs 146 / 313Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PukJnr 1.91/Puk 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
2–3
Puk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 1 · 09:30J. Jnr511261111113J. Puk4114116372
WAug 21 · 08:33J. Jnr45116611113J. Puk4491111942
LAug 21 · 07:30J. Jnr4061111752J. Puk44116511113
J. Jnr10
LOct 1 · 12:00A. Dvoracek1.401111123J. Jnr2.7533100LOct 1 · 11:00M. Melisek1.5381111113J. Jnr2.38116481WOct 1 · 09:30J. Puk1.7314116372J. Jnr2.001261111113WSep 27 · 12:59J. Jnr2.10911112113M. Holub1.6711781152LSep 27 · 12:00M. Holub1.7361111113J. Jnr2.00119841LSep 27 · 11:00P. Fiser2.501111113J. Jnr1.504880LSep 27 · 09:30M. Snizek1.671181111113J. Jnr2.1051141382LSep 26 · 20:59M. Cmil1.73118114113J. Jnr2.0081171142LSep 26 · 20:00J. Jnr1.83711971M. Cmil1.8311411113WSep 26 · 18:30J. Seeman1.831671081J. Jnr1.83141112113
J. Puk10
LOct 1 · 11:30J. Puk2.505670M. Melisek1.501111113WOct 1 · 10:30J. Puk2.3881111113A. Dvoracek1.53116731LOct 1 · 09:30J. Puk1.7314116372J. Jnr2.001261111113LSep 29 · 08:53J. Puk1.80117831M. Vorel1.9161111113LSep 29 · 07:45J. Puk1.67881171M. Vorel2.1011119113WSep 29 · 06:15P. Hlina1.441176101J. Puk2.6361111123LSep 29 · 05:45A. Sys2.38125115113J. Puk1.53101191172LSep 25 · 08:53J. Puk1.91611491M. Vorel1.8011811113WSep 25 · 07:45M. Vorel1.83911991J. Puk1.8311911113LSep 25 · 06:45K. Farsky1.801111113J. Puk1.915760
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