TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jakub Dufek Jnr vs Martin Holub 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911117118211115
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingJakub Dufek Jnr above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 86 set 5, 11-5
86 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dufek Jnr 28–36 Martin Holub Jakub Dufek Jnr has won 28 of their 64 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Holub beat Jnr 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Holub)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 2.10 / Holub 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Holub)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13206480
Jnr2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog51% won 81 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back30% 22 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Holub1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 93 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it96% 44 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it71% 65 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr6wins
AwayHolub4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderJnr leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr75%3 of 4
AwayHolub50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr4Holub6n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S2Jnr5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S3Jnr5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S4Jnr5Holub4n = 9Jnr took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrHolubJ − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.038.4+0.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime246 / 484 vs 357 / 65050.8%54.9%246 / 484 vs 357 / 650Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.440.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubJnr 2.10/Holub 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 12:00J. Jnr32119841M. Holub3961111113
LSep 14 · 12:00J. Jnr366101731M. Holub49111215113
LSep 2 · 13:08J. Jnr2791170M. Holub351113113
WSep 2 · 10:00J. Jnr4211911113M. Holub36911791
LAug 28 · 11:30J. Jnr32712761M. Holub43111011113
WAug 25 · 17:03J. Jnr4211911113M. Holub34911591
WAug 25 · 13:30J. Jnr481011115113M. Holub4212841172
WJul 18 · 10:00J. Jnr4391111123M. Holub371179101
WJul 17 · 09:30J. Jnr46511811113M. Holub4011411772
WJul 10 · 16:00J. Jnr4211119113M. Holub29651171
J. Jnr10
LSep 27 · 12:00M. Holub1.7361111113J. Jnr2.00119841LSep 27 · 11:00P. Fiser2.501111113J. Jnr1.504880LSep 27 · 09:30M. Snizek1.671181111113J. Jnr2.1051141382LSep 26 · 20:59M. Cmil1.73118114113J. Jnr2.0081171142LSep 26 · 20:00J. Jnr1.83711971M. Cmil1.8311411113WSep 26 · 18:30J. Seeman1.831671081J. Jnr1.83141112113LSep 26 · 18:00D. Sabuka1.611111113J. Jnr2.207990LSep 22 · 13:05P. Moulis2.101111113J. Jnr1.675820LSep 22 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5761112662P. Moulis2.251161011113WSep 22 · 10:30L. Krutina1.57611981J. Jnr2.2511911113
M. Holub10
WSep 27 · 12:00M. Holub1.7361111113J. Jnr2.00119841LSep 27 · 10:30M. Snizek1.731111113M. Holub2.007990LSep 27 · 10:00P. Fiser1.507121111113M. Holub2.5011149472LSep 25 · 08:33L. Krutina1.67713911113M. Holub2.10111111682LSep 25 · 07:30M. Holub1.73111181352F. Fryml2.00461115113WSep 25 · 06:30M. Holub2.1011611113L. Krutina1.67711781LSep 25 · 05:30M. Holub1.611081181D. Sabuka2.2012116113WSep 23 · 08:39M. Holub1.9111911113F. Fryml1.80511861LSep 23 · 08:00M. Holub2.20881111102P. Moulis1.61111188123WSep 23 · 06:30L. Krutina1.73811981M. Holub2.0011911113
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