TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jaroslav Puk vs Martin Vorel 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611118411911––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingJaroslav Puk above · Martin Vorel below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 71 set 4, 9-11
71 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Puk 37–28 Martin Vorel Martin Vorel has won 28 of their 65 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Puk beat Vorel 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Puk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorel form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPuk 1.91 / Vorel 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Puk)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13193500
Puk1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 37 of 97
Down 0–1, comes back20% 11 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Vorel1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 94 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it86% 37 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it74% 69 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePuk5wins
AwayVorel5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePuk71.4%5 of 7
AwayVorel100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Puk7Vorel3n = 10Puk took 7 of 10
S2Puk3Vorel7n = 10Vorel took 7 of 10
S3Puk7Vorel3n = 10Puk took 7 of 10
S4Puk4Vorel3n = 7Puk took 4 of 7
S5Puk1Vorel3n = 4Vorel took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPukVorelP − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.439.4−2.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPukVorelBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 311 vs 402 / 78147%51.5%146 / 311 vs 402 / 781Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PukPuk 1.91/Vorel 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Puk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vorel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 07:45J. Puk4211911113M. Vorel38911991
WSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk50119116133M. Vorel46611711112
LSep 4 · 06:00J. Puk4511891252M. Vorel496111110113
LAug 31 · 06:00J. Puk3861111822M. Vorel47118611113
LAug 25 · 09:03J. Puk4111431582M. Vorel548111113113
LAug 25 · 08:00J. Puk314611101M. Vorel4011116123
WAug 19 · 08:58J. Puk4012611113M. Vorel361011781
WAug 19 · 08:00J. Puk331111113M. Vorel197660
LJul 21 · 12:38J. Puk161690M. Vorel331111113
WJul 21 · 09:30J. Puk381311143M. Vorel32119120
J. Puk10
WSep 25 · 07:45M. Vorel1.83911991J. Puk1.8311911113LSep 25 · 06:45K. Farsky1.801111113J. Puk1.915760LSep 25 · 05:15P. Hlina1.5311119113J. Puk2.38371161LSep 24 · 09:04J. Puk1.28119111272M. Snizek3.501311810113WSep 24 · 08:00J. Puk1.6111811113P. Moulis2.20911861WSep 24 · 06:30M. Snizek3.50911861J. Puk1.2811711113WSep 24 · 06:00V. Kral1.83751191J. Puk1.8311118113LSep 11 · 09:19J. Puk1.91101141162F. Husek1.80129114113WSep 11 · 08:00J. Puk1.571310128133P. Moulis2.2511121011112WSep 11 · 06:30M. Snizek3.005960J. Puk1.361111113
M. Vorel10
LSep 25 · 07:45M. Vorel1.83911991J. Puk1.8311911113LSep 25 · 06:15P. Hlina1.50811711133M. Vorel2.50117115112WSep 25 · 05:45K. Farsky1.5011871152M. Vorel2.50511113113LSep 24 · 12:13M. Obraz2.2011611113M. Vorel1.61711761LSep 24 · 11:15M. Vorel1.448850J. Blazek2.631111113LSep 24 · 10:15M. Vorel1.831241161A. Dvoracek1.8314117113WSep 24 · 09:15M. Vorel1.6191111113M. Obraz2.20115571LSep 22 · 12:34M. Vorel1.57116971L. Krutina2.2581111113WSep 22 · 11:30L. Krutina1.914911101M. Vorel1.8011116123WSep 22 · 11:00M. Vorel1.3011815113P. Moulis3.406111361
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