TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Adam Dvoracek vs Jakub Dufek Jnr 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1131131210––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:59 and never touched: 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeAdam Dvoracek to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Dvoracek above · Jakub Dufek Jnr below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 50 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Adam Dvoracek at 69.5%
50 points played in total.
H2H Adam Dvoracek 17–14 Jakub Dufek Jnr Jakub Dufek Jnr has won 14 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5969.5%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.9pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Dvoracek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-14 in 31
Dvoracek
Correct
gap of 3 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvoracek 1451 vs Jnr 1280
Dvoracek
Correct
both rated, 171 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvoracek 80% vs Jnr 40%
Dvoracek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvoracek 70% vs Jnr 30%
Dvoracek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvoracek -1 · Jnr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Dvoracek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvoracek 1.40 / Jnr 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 31%
Edge (Dvoracek)-1.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223814
Dvoracek1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 72 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it78% 52 of 67
Jnr2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog50% won 80 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back29% 22 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvoracek6wins
AwayJnr4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDvoracek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvoracek71.4%5 of 7
AwayJnr66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvoracek7Jnr3n = 10Dvoracek took 7 of 10
S2Dvoracek7Jnr3n = 10Dvoracek took 7 of 10
S3Dvoracek7Jnr3n = 10Dvoracek took 7 of 10
S4Dvoracek2Jnr4n = 6Jnr took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvoracekJnrD − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.933.1+4.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvoracekJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime251 / 478 vs 243 / 47952.5%50.7%251 / 478 vs 243 / 479Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DvoracekDvoracek 1.40/Jnr 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Dvoracek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Dvoracek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 19 · 17:45A. Dvoracek32127851J. Jnr43101111113
WAug 18 · 12:00A. Dvoracek341112113J. Jnr2381050
LJul 25 · 18:00A. Dvoracek4471113762J. Jnr491151111113
WJun 15 · 12:49A. Dvoracek4011411143J. Jnr376118121
WJun 15 · 10:15A. Dvoracek331111113J. Jnr153570
WMay 27 · 10:30A. Dvoracek43111110113J. Jnr30561271
WMay 25 · 09:45A. Dvoracek331111113J. Jnr165650
LSep 11 · 17:05A. Dvoracek36991171J. Jnr3611113113
LSep 11 · 14:30A. Dvoracek4611129862J. Jnr496101111113
A. Dvoracek10
LOct 1 · 10:30J. Puk2.3881111113A. Dvoracek1.53116731WOct 1 · 10:00M. Melisek2.63111951A. Dvoracek1.4451111113WSep 30 · 08:38A. Dvoracek1.5711116133P. Cizek2.255711111WSep 30 · 07:30P. Cizek2.257711101A. Dvoracek1.5711114123WSep 30 · 07:00A. Dvoracek1.73118118123D. Sabuka2.00811611102WSep 30 · 06:00A. Dvoracek1.615111112113M. Obraz2.2011741452WSep 26 · 16:59J. Hanacek1.831181391A. Dvoracek1.8371115113LSep 26 · 16:00A. Dvoracek1.831110661J. Hanacek1.8351211113WSep 26 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer2.204770A. Dvoracek1.611111113LSep 26 · 14:00J. Mejzlik1.8011611113A. Dvoracek1.91811991
J. Jnr10
LOct 1 · 11:00M. Melisek1.5381111113J. Jnr2.38116481WOct 1 · 09:30J. Puk1.7314116372J. Jnr2.001261111113WSep 27 · 12:59J. Jnr2.10911112113M. Holub1.6711781152LSep 27 · 12:00M. Holub1.7361111113J. Jnr2.00119841LSep 27 · 11:00P. Fiser2.501111113J. Jnr1.504880LSep 27 · 09:30M. Snizek1.671181111113J. Jnr2.1051141382LSep 26 · 20:59M. Cmil1.73118114113J. Jnr2.0081171142LSep 26 · 20:00J. Jnr1.83711971M. Cmil1.8311411113WSep 26 · 18:30J. Seeman1.831671081J. Jnr1.83141112113LSep 26 · 18:00D. Sabuka1.611111113J. Jnr2.207990
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