TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Marian Melisek vs Oleh Plyska 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114119118––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:55 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Plyska to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarian Melisek above · Oleh Plyska below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 54 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Oleh Plyska at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Marian Melisek 10–10 Oleh Plyska Dead even across their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 10:5554.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Plyska
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-10 in 20
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melisek 1409 vs Plyska 1386
Melisek
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melisek 60% vs Plyska 0%
Melisek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melisek 50% vs Plyska 20%
Melisek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melisek -1 · Plyska -6
Plyska
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Plyska) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plyska form (0%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelisek 2.10 / Plyska 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Melisek)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251284
Melisek2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 63 of 150
Down 0–1, comes back24% 17 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Plyska1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 91 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it90% 47 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it65% 63 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelisek5wins
AwayPlyska5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelisek66.7%4 of 6
AwayPlyska75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melisek6Plyska4n = 10Melisek took 6 of 10
S2Melisek2Plyska8n = 10Plyska took 8 of 10
S3Melisek4Plyska6n = 10Plyska took 6 of 10
S4Melisek5Plyska3n = 8Melisek took 5 of 8
S5Melisek3Plyska1n = 4Melisek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelisekPlyskaM − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.742.5−1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelisekPlyskaBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 462 vs 325 / 66448.9%49%226 / 462 vs 325 / 664Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MelisekMelisek 2.10/Plyska 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Plyska · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Melisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 8 · 14:00M. Melisek207490O. Plyska331111113
WAug 7 · 12:34M. Melisek45661111113O. Plyska4511116892
LAug 7 · 11:30M. Melisek345111171O. Plyska4311138113
LJul 22 · 11:30M. Melisek31711761O. Plyska4111811113
WJun 2 · 09:15M. Melisek541751011113O. Plyska54151112792
WMay 30 · 16:00M. Melisek4111811113O. Plyska29311961
WMay 24 · 16:18M. Melisek551291211113O. Plyska50101114872
WMay 24 · 13:45M. Melisek351311113O. Plyska2911990
LMay 5 · 10:45M. Melisek391261291O. Plyska46101114113
LApr 18 · 16:00M. Melisek53161071192O. Plyska551412117113
M. Melisek10
LOct 6 · 11:30M. Vana1.61111111113M. Melisek2.20613991LOct 6 · 10:00M. Melisek2.63113771A. Dvoracek1.4411111113WOct 3 · 17:12M. Cmil2.7586111142M. Melisek1.40111179113WOct 3 · 15:30M. Melisek1.501112139113M. Vorel2.50614111182WOct 3 · 14:30M. Melisek2.00715812113J. Hanacek1.731113111092LOct 3 · 13:30M. Melisek1.36111115682M. Cmil3.007131311113WOct 2 · 13:08J. Jnr2.109760M. Melisek1.671111113LOct 2 · 12:00M. Melisek1.50111161122J. Jnr2.50138117113LOct 2 · 10:30D. Sabuka3.25911711113M. Melisek1.3311811872WOct 2 · 10:00M. Hasman1.736101191M. Melisek2.0011124113
O. Plyska10
LOct 6 · 12:00A. Dvoracek2.5011118113O. Plyska1.50791191LOct 6 · 09:30M. Vana1.91761111113O. Plyska1.8011118652LOct 5 · 09:03O. Plyska2.005380M. Vorel1.731111113LOct 5 · 08:00M. Vorel1.801111133O. Plyska1.9138110LOct 5 · 07:00J. Hanacek1.83119612113O. Plyska1.83711111092LOct 5 · 05:30A. Sys2.101111123O. Plyska1.6769100LOct 2 · 09:13O. Plyska1.8088111172M. Vana1.91111149113WOct 2 · 08:00A. Dvoracek2.63111177112O. Plyska1.44881111133WOct 2 · 07:00M. Vana1.91101211592O. Plyska1.801210911113LOct 2 · 05:30F. Husek1.91116911113O. Plyska1.8071111772
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