TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Marian Melisek vs Martin Vorel 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11612141311911118
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:21 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Vorel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarian Melisek above · Martin Vorel below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 106 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Martin Vorel at 54.0%
106 points played in total.
H2H Marian Melisek 13–22 Martin Vorel Marian Melisek has won 13 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2154.0%Our read40.0%to break even at 2.50
clears by 14.0pp40.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.50 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Melisek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-22 in 35
Vorel
Wrong
gap of 9 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melisek 1400 vs Vorel 1346
Melisek
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melisek 40% vs Vorel 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melisek 50% vs Vorel 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melisek +1 · Vorel +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vorel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melisek form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelisek 1.50 / Vorel 2.50
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vorel)+14.0pp
Setka Cup · #13237260
Melisek1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 44 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it85% 28 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it77% 37 of 48
Vorel2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 68 of 134
Down 0–1, comes back31% 22 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelisek4wins
AwayVorel6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVorel leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelisek40%2 of 5
AwayVorel60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melisek5Vorel5n = 10split evenly
S2Melisek6Vorel4n = 10Melisek took 6 of 10
S3Melisek6Vorel4n = 10Melisek took 6 of 10
S4Melisek2Vorel7n = 9Vorel took 7 of 9
S5Melisek2Vorel3n = 5Vorel took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelisekVorelM − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.839.8−1.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelisekVorelBasisWin rate · lifetime225 / 464 vs 394 / 77648.5%50.8%225 / 464 vs 394 / 776Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VorelMelisek 1.50/Vorel 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vorel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Melisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 10:00M. Melisek30511591M. Vorel3811511113
LSep 1 · 12:00M. Melisek4211811842M. Vorel41511311113
WAug 28 · 12:54M. Melisek474111110113M. Vorel4411581282
LAug 28 · 09:45M. Melisek45311118122M. Vorel50118611143
WMay 15 · 13:04M. Melisek49491213113M. Vorel501111101172
WMay 15 · 10:00M. Melisek341111123M. Vorel2266100
LMay 11 · 12:59M. Melisek29117291M. Vorel4181111113
WMay 11 · 11:00M. Melisek3711411113M. Vorel33811681
LMay 4 · 10:30M. Melisek29611571M. Vorel3411111113
LApr 15 · 12:28M. Melisek4611117982M. Vorel45661111113
M. Melisek10
WOct 3 · 14:30M. Melisek2.00715812113J. Hanacek1.731113111092LOct 3 · 13:30M. Melisek1.36111115682M. Cmil3.007131311113WOct 2 · 13:08J. Jnr2.109760M. Melisek1.671111113LOct 2 · 12:00M. Melisek1.50111161122J. Jnr2.50138117113LOct 2 · 10:30D. Sabuka3.25911711113M. Melisek1.3311811872WOct 2 · 10:00M. Hasman1.736101191M. Melisek2.0011124113LOct 1 · 13:00A. Dvoracek1.44911116113M. Melisek2.6311761162WOct 1 · 11:30J. Puk2.505670M. Melisek1.501111113WOct 1 · 11:00M. Melisek1.5381111113J. Jnr2.38116481LOct 1 · 10:00M. Melisek2.63111951A. Dvoracek1.4451111113
M. Vorel10
WOct 3 · 15:00M. Vorel1.611111113M. Cmil2.206880LOct 3 · 14:00M. Vorel2.2511811762J. Hanacek1.57511711113LSep 30 · 16:39M. Vorel1.8011911852K. Polak1.91411511113WSep 30 · 16:00O. Plyska1.911211101132M. Vorel1.801081213113LSep 30 · 15:00J. Mejzlik1.9191111133M. Vorel1.801183111LSep 30 · 13:30K. Polak2.20111188113M. Vorel1.6168111132WSep 29 · 08:53J. Puk1.80117831M. Vorel1.9161111113WSep 29 · 07:45J. Puk1.67881171M. Vorel2.1011119113LSep 29 · 06:45A. Sys1.8011115113M. Vorel1.91471151LSep 29 · 05:15P. Hlina1.5311115113M. Vorel2.38971141
Upcoming Matches
M. Melisek
M. Vorel
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