TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Martin Vorel vs Marcel Cmil 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118118––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:56 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMartin Vorel to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Vorel above · Marcel Cmil below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-3
Point 45 set 3, 6-3 · our read held Martin Vorel at 54.9%
45 points drawn · the score is 10 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5654.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 7.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vorel
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Vorel 1355 vs Cmil 1396
Cmil
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vorel 20% vs Cmil 60%
Cmil
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vorel 30% vs Cmil 60%
Cmil
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vorel -2 · Cmil +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Vorel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cmil form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorel 1.615 / Cmil 2.20
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Vorel)-7.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13237349
Vorel1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 93 of 172
Up 2–0, closes it86% 36 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it72% 66 of 92
Cmil2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog52% won 60 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back32% 19 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back18% 7 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorelCmilBasisWin rate · lifetime393 / 775 vs 352 / 64950.7%54.2%393 / 775 vs 352 / 649Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VorelVorel 1.61/Cmil 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Vorel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vorel won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Vorel10
LOct 3 · 14:00M. Vorel2.2511811762J. Hanacek1.57511711113LSep 30 · 16:39M. Vorel1.8011911852K. Polak1.91411511113WSep 30 · 16:00O. Plyska1.911211101132M. Vorel1.801081213113LSep 30 · 15:00J. Mejzlik1.9191111133M. Vorel1.801183111LSep 30 · 13:30K. Polak2.20111188113M. Vorel1.6168111132WSep 29 · 08:53J. Puk1.80117831M. Vorel1.9161111113WSep 29 · 07:45J. Puk1.67881171M. Vorel2.1011119113LSep 29 · 06:45A. Sys1.8011115113M. Vorel1.91471151LSep 29 · 05:15P. Hlina1.5311115113M. Vorel2.38971141LSep 26 · 09:09J. Hanacek1.60116411113M. Vorel2.2081111182
M. Cmil10
WOct 3 · 13:30M. Melisek1.36111115682M. Cmil3.007131311113WSep 28 · 20:38M. Cmil1.83111110113T. Stejskal1.83771241LSep 28 · 20:00M. Cmil1.91127116122M. Holub1.801011611143LSep 28 · 18:30L. Krutina1.83121166113M. Cmil1.83103111172WSep 28 · 18:00T. Stejskal1.8081111982M. Cmil1.91119511113LSep 28 · 09:10D. Sabuka1.7371115113M. Cmil2.001181381WSep 28 · 07:30M. Cmil1.911111113M. Vydra1.809370LSep 28 · 06:30M. Cmil1.8311461232D. Sabuka1.838111110113WSep 28 · 05:30M. Cmil1.671211812113L. Boura2.10108111452WSep 26 · 20:59M. Cmil1.73118114113J. Jnr2.0081171142
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