TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Plyska vs Martin Vorel 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
121011810121113311
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:52 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Plyska to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleh Plyska above · Martin Vorel below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 101 set 5, 3-11 · our read held Oleh Plyska at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Plyska 54–57 Martin Vorel Oleh Plyska has won 54 of their 111 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:5254.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vorel
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
54-57 in 111
Vorel
Correct
gap of 3 in 111, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plyska 1473 vs Vorel 1362
Plyska
Wrong
both rated, 111 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plyska 20% vs Vorel 40%
Vorel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plyska 50% vs Vorel 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Plyska +1 · Vorel -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Plyska) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorel form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlyska 1.909 / Vorel 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Plyska)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13219263
Plyska1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 52 of 139
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 39
Vorel1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 93 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it86% 36 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it74% 67 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlyska4wins
AwayVorel6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVorel leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlyska50%2 of 4
AwayVorel66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plyska4Vorel6n = 10Vorel took 6 of 10
S2Plyska6Vorel4n = 10Plyska took 6 of 10
S3Plyska4Vorel6n = 10Vorel took 6 of 10
S4Plyska2Vorel7n = 9Vorel took 7 of 9
S5Plyska3Vorel2n = 5Plyska took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlyskaVorelP − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.442.4−4.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlyskaVorelBasisWin rate · lifetime324 / 661 vs 398 / 78049%51%324 / 661 vs 398 / 780Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PlyskaPlyska 1.91/Vorel 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Plyska · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vorel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 07:00O. Plyska3811113762M. Vorel45841111113
LSep 14 · 06:00O. Plyska32712761M. Vorel43111011113
WSep 7 · 09:09O. Plyska53151188113M. Vorel50138111172
WSep 7 · 08:00O. Plyska521151213113M. Vorel50511141192
LJul 29 · 13:03O. Plyska32571191M. Vorel3911116113
WJul 29 · 11:00O. Plyska4071111113M. Vorel35117981
LJul 27 · 12:00O. Plyska32412881M. Vorel43111011113
LJul 21 · 11:00O. Plyska3911811632M. Vorel43311711113
LJul 3 · 05:30O. Plyska196760M. Vorel331111113
WJun 30 · 10:45O. Plyska47711117113M. Vorel4311781162
O. Plyska10
WSep 30 · 14:30K. Polak2.3897100O. Plyska1.531111123LSep 30 · 14:00J. Mejzlik1.801110117113O. Plyska1.9141281152LSep 26 · 08:29O. Plyska2.008650P. Hlina1.731111113LSep 26 · 08:00J. Hanacek2.201111113O. Plyska1.615570LSep 26 · 07:00M. Vorel1.80841111113O. Plyska1.9111113762WSep 26 · 05:30P. Hlina1.80611211112O. Plyska1.91116117133WSep 22 · 17:08O. Plyska1.61111111143M. Vana2.201138121LSep 22 · 16:00M. Vana2.007111213113O. Plyska1.73116101542WSep 22 · 15:00K. Polak2.0010870O. Plyska1.731211113WSep 22 · 13:30M. Hasman1.837290O. Plyska1.831111113
M. Vorel10
LSep 30 · 16:39M. Vorel1.8011911852K. Polak1.91411511113LSep 30 · 15:00J. Mejzlik1.9191111133M. Vorel1.801183111LSep 30 · 13:30K. Polak2.20111188113M. Vorel1.6168111132WSep 29 · 08:53J. Puk1.80117831M. Vorel1.9161111113WSep 29 · 07:45J. Puk1.67881171M. Vorel2.1011119113LSep 29 · 06:45A. Sys1.8011115113M. Vorel1.91471151LSep 29 · 05:15P. Hlina1.5311115113M. Vorel2.38971141LSep 26 · 09:09J. Hanacek1.60116411113M. Vorel2.2081111182WSep 26 · 07:30P. Hlina1.505121011112M. Vorel2.501110129133WSep 26 · 07:00M. Vorel1.80841111113O. Plyska1.9111113762
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