TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Martin Vorel vs Josef Hanacek 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115811117711611
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:52 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeJosef Hanacek to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Vorel above · Josef Hanacek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 88 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Josef Hanacek at 59.7%
88 points played in total.
H2H Martin Vorel 6–11 Josef Hanacek Martin Vorel has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5259.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Hanacek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-11 in 17
Hanacek
Correct
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vorel 1365 vs Hanacek 1404
Hanacek
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vorel 40% vs Hanacek 20%
Vorel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vorel 40% vs Hanacek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vorel -1 · Hanacek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Hanacek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hanacek form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorel 2.25 / Hanacek 1.571
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Hanacek)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13237454
Vorel2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 30)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog51% won 68 of 134
Down 0–1, comes back31% 22 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 31
Hanacek1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 65 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it89% 23 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it80% 44 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVorel4wins
AwayHanacek6wins
7 of 10 to a deciderHanacek leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorel75%3 of 4
AwayHanacek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorel4Hanacek6n = 10Hanacek took 6 of 10
S2Vorel4Hanacek6n = 10Hanacek took 6 of 10
S3Vorel5Hanacek5n = 10split evenly
S4Vorel2Hanacek6n = 8Hanacek took 6 of 8
S5Vorel4Hanacek3n = 7Vorel took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVorelHanacekV − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.642.8−3.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorelHanacekBasisWin rate · lifetime399 / 782 vs 244 / 48151%50.7%399 / 782 vs 244 / 481Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HanacekVorel 2.25/Hanacek 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Hanacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hanacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 09:09M. Vorel3981111182J. Hanacek43116411113
LSep 26 · 06:00M. Vorel4578111272J. Hanacek501111710113
WSep 17 · 06:00M. Vorel50118137113J. Hanacek46611111172
WAug 28 · 11:45M. Vorel44611115113J. Hanacek4211691152
LAug 24 · 12:54M. Vorel29108110J. Hanacek361211133
LAug 24 · 10:45M. Vorel219840J. Hanacek331111113
LAug 16 · 14:45M. Vorel43811121112J. Hanacek51119146113
WAug 15 · 10:30M. Vorel42111127113J. Hanacek3958111142
LAug 10 · 16:00M. Vorel321146111J. Hanacek4271111133
WJul 30 · 17:45M. Vorel51129118113J. Hanacek46101171172
M. Vorel10
WOct 3 · 15:00M. Vorel1.611111113M. Cmil2.206880LSep 30 · 16:39M. Vorel1.8011911852K. Polak1.91411511113WSep 30 · 16:00O. Plyska1.911211101132M. Vorel1.801081213113LSep 30 · 15:00J. Mejzlik1.9191111133M. Vorel1.801183111LSep 30 · 13:30K. Polak2.20111188113M. Vorel1.6168111132WSep 29 · 08:53J. Puk1.80117831M. Vorel1.9161111113WSep 29 · 07:45J. Puk1.67881171M. Vorel2.1011119113LSep 29 · 06:45A. Sys1.8011115113M. Vorel1.91471151LSep 29 · 05:15P. Hlina1.5311115113M. Vorel2.38971141LSep 26 · 09:09J. Hanacek1.60116411113M. Vorel2.2081111182
J. Hanacek10
LOct 3 · 14:30M. Melisek2.00715812113J. Hanacek1.731113111092LOct 2 · 16:59J. Hanacek1.7391181192L. Tuma2.00114118113WOct 2 · 16:00L. Tuma1.8081190J. Hanacek1.911113113LOct 2 · 15:00E. Ondracek1.801111113J. Hanacek1.919890LOct 2 · 13:30J. Blazek1.831111113J. Hanacek1.837780LSep 27 · 12:50L. Hendrych1.3013112283J. Hanacek3.40117111152WSep 27 · 11:15K. Jirousek1.80811141262J. Hanacek1.911141214113LSep 27 · 10:45J. Hanacek3.25671171L. Hendrych1.3311115113WSep 27 · 09:45J. Hanacek2.2012611113J. Mejzlik1.611011831WSep 26 · 09:09J. Hanacek1.60116411113M. Vorel2.2081111182
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