TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Tomas Stejskal vs Marcel Cmil 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811119115911811
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcel Cmil to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Stejskal above · Marcel Cmil below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 94 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Marcel Cmil at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Stejskal 0–1 Marcel Cmil Tomas Stejskal has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 17:58What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stejskal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stejskal 1383 vs Cmil 1386
Cmil
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stejskal 40% vs Cmil 60%
Cmil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stejskal 20% vs Cmil 60%
Cmil
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stejskal -2 · Cmil -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cmil) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stejskal form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStejskal 1.80 / Cmil 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cmil)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13210523
Stejskal1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 25)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite49% won 19 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it61% 17 of 28
Cmil1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog51% won 59 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back32% 20 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back18% 7 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeStejskal0wins
AwayCmil1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderCmil leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricStejskalCmilS − CBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match53.049.0+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStejskalCmilBasisWin rate · lifetime100 / 218 vs 356 / 65645.9%54.3%100 / 218 vs 356 / 656Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.939.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CmilStejskal 1.80/Cmil 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cmil · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cmil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJul 20 · 07:00T. Stejskal531110111292M. Cmil49612614113
T. Stejskal10
LSep 25 · 16:29T. Stejskal3.254111311F. Schmidtmayer1.33111311113LSep 25 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer1.441111113T. Stejskal2.637560WSep 25 · 15:00T. Stejskal1.731311113M. Melisek2.0011480WSep 25 · 14:00T. Stejskal1.91811611113K. Polak1.8011811472LSep 15 · 16:33T. Stejskal1.807690P. Abraham1.911111113LSep 15 · 16:00M. Soukup1.67111011113T. Stejskal2.10712791LSep 15 · 15:00L. Tuma1.531111113T. Stejskal2.388960LSep 15 · 13:30P. Abraham2.0071311133T. Stejskal1.7311119111LSep 10 · 20:58J. Pina1.61511117113T. Stejskal2.2011751162LSep 10 · 20:00T. Stejskal1.57561141J. Pina2.2511118113
M. Cmil10
LSep 28 · 18:30L. Krutina1.83121166113M. Cmil1.83103111172LSep 28 · 09:10D. Sabuka1.7371115113M. Cmil2.001181381WSep 28 · 07:30M. Cmil1.911111113M. Vydra1.809370LSep 28 · 06:30M. Cmil1.8311461232D. Sabuka1.838111110113WSep 28 · 05:30M. Cmil1.671211812113L. Boura2.10108111452WSep 26 · 20:59M. Cmil1.73118114113J. Jnr2.0081171142WSep 26 · 20:00J. Jnr1.83711971M. Cmil1.8311411113LSep 26 · 19:00D. Sabuka2.101111113M. Cmil1.676780LSep 26 · 17:30J. Seeman1.44115511113M. Cmil2.6381111752WSep 20 · 21:04M. Cmil1.801111123D. Sabuka1.9189100
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