TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Adam Dvoracek vs Oleh Plyska 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117119811119––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:57 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeOleh Plyska to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Dvoracek above · Oleh Plyska below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 77 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Oleh Plyska at 59.7%
77 points played in total.
H2H Adam Dvoracek 6–14 Oleh Plyska Adam Dvoracek has won 6 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5759.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 7.0pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Plyska
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-14 in 20
Plyska
Wrong
gap of 8 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvoracek 1476 vs Plyska 1364
Dvoracek
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvoracek 60% vs Plyska 0%
Dvoracek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvoracek 60% vs Plyska 20%
Dvoracek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvoracek +2 · Plyska -7
Plyska
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Plyska) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plyska form (0%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvoracek 2.50 / Plyska 1.50
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Plyska)-7.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251003
Dvoracek2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 58 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back29% 20 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back14% 5 of 36
Plyska1.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 91 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it90% 47 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it65% 63 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvoracek3wins
AwayPlyska7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPlyska leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvoracek33.3%2 of 6
AwayPlyska75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvoracek6Plyska4n = 10Dvoracek took 6 of 10
S2Dvoracek6Plyska4n = 10Dvoracek took 6 of 10
S3Dvoracek1Plyska9n = 10Plyska took 9 of 10
S4Dvoracek2Plyska6n = 8Plyska took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvoracekPlyskaD − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match31.939.2−7.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvoracekPlyskaBasisWin rate · lifetime253 / 483 vs 325 / 66652.4%48.8%253 / 483 vs 325 / 666Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PlyskaDvoracek 2.50/Plyska 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Plyska · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dvoracek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 6 · 12:00A. Dvoracek4111118113O. Plyska36791191
LOct 2 · 08:00A. Dvoracek47111177112O. Plyska51881111133
LSep 14 · 09:04A. Dvoracek264111011O. Plyska4211812113
LSep 14 · 07:00A. Dvoracek206770O. Plyska331111113
LSep 8 · 06:30A. Dvoracek29711651O. Plyska4111811113
LAug 7 · 10:00A. Dvoracek291111071O. Plyska3841112113
LJul 29 · 12:00A. Dvoracek30117751O. Plyska4181111113
WJul 25 · 20:00A. Dvoracek331111113O. Plyska279990
LJul 21 · 13:09A. Dvoracek32137751O. Plyska44111111113
A. Dvoracek10
WOct 6 · 10:30M. Vana1.611112111392A. Dvoracek2.2013101311113WOct 6 · 10:00M. Melisek2.63113771A. Dvoracek1.4411111113LOct 2 · 08:44A. Dvoracek1.83361151F. Husek1.8311117113LOct 2 · 08:00A. Dvoracek2.63111177112O. Plyska1.44881111133WOct 2 · 06:30F. Husek1.53661261A. Dvoracek2.38111110113LOct 2 · 06:00M. Vana1.611013116113A. Dvoracek2.20121181152WOct 1 · 13:00A. Dvoracek1.44911116113M. Melisek2.6311761162WOct 1 · 12:00A. Dvoracek1.401111123J. Jnr2.7533100LOct 1 · 10:30J. Puk2.3881111113A. Dvoracek1.53116731WOct 1 · 10:00M. Melisek2.63111951A. Dvoracek1.4451111113
O. Plyska10
LOct 6 · 12:39O. Plyska2.10138871M. Melisek1.67111111113LOct 6 · 11:00M. Melisek2.101111113O. Plyska1.674980LOct 6 · 09:30M. Vana1.91761111113O. Plyska1.8011118652LOct 5 · 09:03O. Plyska2.005380M. Vorel1.731111113LOct 5 · 08:00M. Vorel1.801111133O. Plyska1.9138110LOct 5 · 07:00J. Hanacek1.83119612113O. Plyska1.83711111092LOct 5 · 05:30A. Sys2.101111123O. Plyska1.6769100LOct 2 · 09:13O. Plyska1.8088111172M. Vana1.91111149113WOct 2 · 08:00A. Dvoracek2.63111177112O. Plyska1.44881111133WOct 2 · 07:00M. Vana1.91101211592O. Plyska1.801210911113
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