TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Martin Vorel vs Jaroslav Puk 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811116117118––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:54 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Puk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Vorel above · Jaroslav Puk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Jaroslav Puk at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Martin Vorel 31–37 Jaroslav Puk Martin Vorel has won 31 of their 68 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5454.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vorel
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
31-37 in 68
Puk
Wrong
gap of 6 in 68, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vorel 1353 vs Puk 1365
Puk
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vorel 40% vs Puk 60%
Puk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vorel 30% vs Puk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vorel -2 · Puk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Puk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorel form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorel 1.80 / Puk 1.909
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Puk)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13256026
Vorel1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite53% won 90 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it86% 37 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it71% 64 of 90
Puk1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 39 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back21% 13 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVorel7wins
AwayPuk3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVorel leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorel100%4 of 4
AwayPuk50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorel4Puk6n = 10Puk took 6 of 10
S2Vorel8Puk2n = 10Vorel took 8 of 10
S3Vorel4Puk6n = 10Puk took 6 of 10
S4Vorel6Puk4n = 10Vorel took 6 of 10
S5Vorel3Puk1n = 4Vorel took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVorelPukV − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.238.0+5.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorelPukBasisWin rate · lifetime391 / 778 vs 148 / 31450.3%47.1%391 / 778 vs 148 / 314Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PukVorel 1.80/Puk 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Puk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vorel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 08:53M. Vorel3961111113J. Puk29117831
WSep 29 · 07:45M. Vorel4211119113J. Puk34881171
WSep 25 · 08:53M. Vorel4111811113J. Puk30611491
LSep 25 · 07:45M. Vorel38911991J. Puk4211911113
LSep 4 · 09:23M. Vorel46611711112J. Puk50119116133
WSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel496111110113J. Puk4511891252
WAug 31 · 06:00M. Vorel47118611113J. Puk3861111822
WAug 25 · 09:03M. Vorel548111113113J. Puk4111431582
WAug 25 · 08:00M. Vorel4011116123J. Puk314611101
LAug 19 · 08:58M. Vorel361011781J. Puk4012611113
M. Vorel10
LOct 7 · 10:30M. Melisek2.10971111123M. Vorel1.67111189102LOct 7 · 10:00J. Marhol1.67641211113M. Vorel2.10111110482WOct 5 · 09:03O. Plyska2.005380M. Vorel1.731111113WOct 5 · 08:00M. Vorel1.801111133O. Plyska1.9138110LOct 5 · 06:30A. Sys1.73871111153M. Vorel2.00111179132LOct 5 · 06:00J. Hanacek1.57761311143M. Vorel2.251111117122LOct 3 · 16:40J. Hanacek1.6013116113M. Vorel2.201111181LOct 3 · 15:30M. Melisek1.501112139113M. Vorel2.50614111182WOct 3 · 15:00M. Vorel1.611111113M. Cmil2.206880LOct 3 · 14:00M. Vorel2.2511811762J. Hanacek1.57511711113
J. Puk10
WOct 7 · 11:00J. Marhol1.5331111872J. Puk2.38119711113LOct 7 · 09:30M. Melisek1.5041111113J. Puk2.50116761WOct 1 · 12:28J. Jnr1.911110117132J. Puk1.80612811153LOct 1 · 11:30J. Puk2.505670M. Melisek1.501111113WOct 1 · 10:30J. Puk2.3881111113A. Dvoracek1.53116731LOct 1 · 09:30J. Puk1.7314116372J. Jnr2.001261111113LSep 29 · 08:53J. Puk1.80117831M. Vorel1.9161111113LSep 29 · 07:45J. Puk1.67881171M. Vorel2.1011119113WSep 29 · 06:15P. Hlina1.441176101J. Puk2.6361111123LSep 29 · 05:45A. Sys2.38125115113J. Puk1.53101191172
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