TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Josef Hanacek vs Martin Vorel 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
71161113111171412
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:51 and never touched: 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeJosef Hanacek to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJosef Hanacek above · Martin Vorel below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 103 set 5, 14-12 · our read held Josef Hanacek at 64.5%
103 points played in total.
H2H Josef Hanacek 14–6 Martin Vorel Martin Vorel has won 6 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5164.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
clears by 0.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Hanacek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-6 in 20
Hanacek
Correct
gap of 8 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hanacek 1439 vs Vorel 1335
Hanacek
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hanacek 40% vs Vorel 20%
Hanacek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hanacek 40% vs Vorel 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hanacek +1 · Vorel -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Hanacek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorel form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHanacek 1.571 / Vorel 2.25
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Hanacek)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13245318
Hanacek1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 03)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 67 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it79% 45 of 57
Vorel2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 03)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 64 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back28% 19 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHanacek8wins
AwayVorel2wins
7 of 10 to a deciderHanacek leads 8–2, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHanacek85.7%6 of 7
AwayVorel33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hanacek7Vorel3n = 10Hanacek took 7 of 10
S2Hanacek6Vorel4n = 10Hanacek took 6 of 10
S3Hanacek4Vorel6n = 10Vorel took 6 of 10
S4Hanacek6Vorel2n = 8Hanacek took 6 of 8
S5Hanacek5Vorel2n = 7Hanacek took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHanacekVorelH − VBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.839.7+4.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHanacekVorelBasisWin rate · lifetime249 / 488 vs 394 / 78051%50.5%249 / 488 vs 394 / 780Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HanacekHanacek 1.57/Vorel 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Hanacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hanacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 06:00J. Hanacek51761311143M. Vorel521111117122
WOct 3 · 16:40J. Hanacek4113116113M. Vorel311111181
WOct 3 · 14:00J. Hanacek45511711113M. Vorel4311811762
WSep 26 · 09:09J. Hanacek43116411113M. Vorel3981111182
WSep 26 · 06:00J. Hanacek501111710113M. Vorel4578111272
LSep 17 · 06:00J. Hanacek46611111172M. Vorel50118137113
LAug 28 · 11:45J. Hanacek4211691152M. Vorel44611115113
WAug 24 · 12:54J. Hanacek361211133M. Vorel29108110
WAug 24 · 10:45J. Hanacek331111113M. Vorel219840
WAug 16 · 14:45J. Hanacek51119146113M. Vorel43811121112
J. Hanacek10
WOct 5 · 07:30A. Sys1.7361090J. Hanacek2.001112113WOct 5 · 07:00J. Hanacek1.83119612113O. Plyska1.83711111092WOct 3 · 16:40J. Hanacek1.6013116113M. Vorel2.201111181LOct 3 · 16:00J. Hanacek1.5091171152M. Cmil2.50116119113LOct 3 · 14:30M. Melisek2.00715812113J. Hanacek1.731113111092WOct 3 · 14:00M. Vorel2.2511811762J. Hanacek1.57511711113LOct 2 · 16:59J. Hanacek1.7391181192L. Tuma2.00114118113WOct 2 · 16:00L. Tuma1.8081190J. Hanacek1.911113113LOct 2 · 15:00E. Ondracek1.801111113J. Hanacek1.919890LOct 2 · 13:30J. Blazek1.831111113J. Hanacek1.837780
M. Vorel10
LOct 5 · 06:30A. Sys1.73871111153M. Vorel2.00111179132LOct 3 · 16:40J. Hanacek1.6013116113M. Vorel2.201111181LOct 3 · 15:30M. Melisek1.501112139113M. Vorel2.50614111182WOct 3 · 15:00M. Vorel1.611111113M. Cmil2.206880LOct 3 · 14:00M. Vorel2.2511811762J. Hanacek1.57511711113LSep 30 · 16:39M. Vorel1.8011911852K. Polak1.91411511113WSep 30 · 16:00O. Plyska1.911211101132M. Vorel1.801081213113LSep 30 · 15:00J. Mejzlik1.9191111133M. Vorel1.801183111LSep 30 · 13:30K. Polak2.20111188113M. Vorel1.6168111132WSep 29 · 08:53J. Puk1.80117831M. Vorel1.9161111113
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