TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Alan Sys vs Martin Vorel 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Alan Sys
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8117111171191513
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:15 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAlan Sys to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAlan Sys above · Martin Vorel below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 15-13
Point 103 set 5, 15-13 · our read held Alan Sys at 54.0%
103 points played in total.
H2H Alan Sys 6–7 Martin Vorel Alan Sys has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:1554.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sys
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sys 1491 vs Vorel 1335
Sys
Correct
both rated, 156 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sys 80% vs Vorel 20%
Sys
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sys 40% vs Vorel 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sys +1 · Vorel -3
Vorel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sys) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorel form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSys 1.727 / Vorel 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sys)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245306
Sys1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Vorel2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 64 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back28% 19 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSys6wins
AwayVorel4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSys leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSys60%3 of 5
AwayVorel40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sys5Vorel5n = 10split evenly
S2Sys4Vorel6n = 10Vorel took 6 of 10
S3Sys7Vorel3n = 10Sys took 7 of 10
S4Sys7Vorel2n = 9Sys took 7 of 9
S5Sys2Vorel3n = 5Vorel took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSysVorelS − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.244.6−0.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSysVorelBasisWin rate · lifetime5 / 7 vs 394 / 78071.4%50.5%5 / 7 vs 394 / 780Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SysSys 1.73/Vorel 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sys · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sys won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 06:30A. Sys52871111153M. Vorel51111179132
WSep 29 · 06:45A. Sys3811115113M. Vorel27471151
LJul 29 · 08:30A. Sys4211741192M. Vorel48611119113
LJul 29 · 07:30A. Sys371161191M. Vorel4213117113
LJul 23 · 07:45A. Sys4427171172M. Vorel551111157113
WJul 20 · 17:15A. Sys381611113M. Vorel3214990
LJun 7 · 14:45A. Sys5412252872M. Vorel6910111126113
WJun 5 · 09:00A. Sys46611117113M. Vorel4211981132
WJun 5 · 06:30A. Sys4691211143M. Vorel4011107121
WMay 26 · 06:30A. Sys4513911123M. Vorel4011118101
A. Sys10
LOct 5 · 07:30A. Sys1.7361090J. Hanacek2.001112113WOct 5 · 05:30A. Sys2.101111123O. Plyska1.6769100LSep 29 · 08:23A. Sys1.61119991P. Hlina2.2051111113WSep 29 · 07:15P. Hlina1.838111091A. Sys1.8311912113WSep 29 · 06:45A. Sys1.8011115113M. Vorel1.91471151WSep 29 · 05:45A. Sys2.38125115113J. Puk1.53101191172LJul 29 · 08:30M. Vorel1.83611119113A. Sys1.8311741192LJul 29 · 07:30A. Sys1.831161191M. Vorel1.8313117113LJul 29 · 06:30A. Sys1.806890O. Plyska1.911111113LJul 29 · 05:30A. Sys1.8381080J. Krojidlo1.831112113
M. Vorel10
LOct 5 · 06:00J. Hanacek1.57761311143M. Vorel2.251111117122LOct 3 · 16:40J. Hanacek1.6013116113M. Vorel2.201111181LOct 3 · 15:30M. Melisek1.501112139113M. Vorel2.50614111182WOct 3 · 15:00M. Vorel1.611111113M. Cmil2.206880LOct 3 · 14:00M. Vorel2.2511811762J. Hanacek1.57511711113LSep 30 · 16:39M. Vorel1.8011911852K. Polak1.91411511113WSep 30 · 16:00O. Plyska1.911211101132M. Vorel1.801081213113LSep 29 · 06:45A. Sys1.8011115113M. Vorel1.91471151WJul 29 · 08:30M. Vorel1.83611119113A. Sys1.8311741192WJul 29 · 07:30A. Sys1.831161191M. Vorel1.8313117113
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