TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Josef Hanacek vs Marcel Cmil 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911116711119511
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:46 and never touched: 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeJosef Hanacek to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJosef Hanacek above · Marcel Cmil below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 3-4
Point 62 set 4, 3-4 · our read held Josef Hanacek at 63.7%
62 points drawn · the score is 29 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Josef Hanacek 7–3 Marcel Cmil Marcel Cmil has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:4663.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.0pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Hanacek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Hanacek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hanacek 1402 vs Cmil 1406
Cmil
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hanacek 40% vs Cmil 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hanacek 40% vs Cmil 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hanacek -1 · Cmil -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Hanacek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hanacek form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHanacek 1.50 / Cmil 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Hanacek)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234532
Hanacek1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 65 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it89% 23 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it80% 44 of 55
Cmil2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog52% won 60 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back32% 19 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back18% 7 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHanacek7wins
AwayCmil3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderHanacek leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHanacek75%6 of 8
AwayCmiln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hanacek8Cmil2n = 10Hanacek took 8 of 10
S2Hanacek4Cmil6n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S3Hanacek4Cmil6n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S4Hanacek3Cmil5n = 8Cmil took 5 of 8
S5Hanacek5Cmil1n = 6Hanacek took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHanacekCmilH − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.540.1+3.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHanacekCmilBasisWin rate · lifetime245 / 483 vs 352 / 65050.7%54.2%245 / 483 vs 352 / 650Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HanacekHanacek 1.50/Cmil 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Hanacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cmil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 26 · 21:05J. Hanacek551210911133M. Cmil521012118112
WMay 26 · 18:30J. Hanacek531111128113M. Cmil4587141152
WMay 25 · 09:05J. Hanacek43111110113M. Cmil31491261
WMay 25 · 07:00J. Hanacek53168117113M. Cmil51141171182
WMay 24 · 08:30J. Hanacek49712811113M. Cmil38111011242
LMay 24 · 07:30J. Hanacek4311712672M. Cmil496111011113
WMay 17 · 19:00J. Hanacek45114118113M. Cmil3641151152
LApr 26 · 21:00J. Hanacek239770M. Cmil331111113
LApr 26 · 20:00J. Hanacek381186131M. Cmil4691111153
WApr 25 · 14:30J. Hanacek331111113M. Cmil205690
J. Hanacek10
WOct 3 · 16:40J. Hanacek1.6013116113M. Vorel2.201111181LOct 3 · 14:30M. Melisek2.00715812113J. Hanacek1.731113111092WOct 3 · 14:00M. Vorel2.2511811762J. Hanacek1.57511711113LOct 2 · 16:59J. Hanacek1.7391181192L. Tuma2.00114118113WOct 2 · 16:00L. Tuma1.8081190J. Hanacek1.911113113LOct 2 · 15:00E. Ondracek1.801111113J. Hanacek1.919890LOct 2 · 13:30J. Blazek1.831111113J. Hanacek1.837780LSep 27 · 12:50L. Hendrych1.3013112283J. Hanacek3.40117111152WSep 27 · 11:15K. Jirousek1.80811141262J. Hanacek1.911141214113LSep 27 · 10:45J. Hanacek3.25671171L. Hendrych1.3311115113
M. Cmil10
LOct 3 · 15:00M. Vorel1.611111113M. Cmil2.206880WOct 3 · 13:30M. Melisek1.36111115682M. Cmil3.007131311113WSep 28 · 20:38M. Cmil1.83111110113T. Stejskal1.83771241LSep 28 · 20:00M. Cmil1.91127116122M. Holub1.801011611143LSep 28 · 18:30L. Krutina1.83121166113M. Cmil1.83103111172WSep 28 · 18:00T. Stejskal1.8081111982M. Cmil1.91119511113LSep 28 · 09:10D. Sabuka1.7371115113M. Cmil2.001181381WSep 28 · 07:30M. Cmil1.911111113M. Vydra1.809370LSep 28 · 06:30M. Cmil1.8311461232D. Sabuka1.838111110113WSep 28 · 05:30M. Cmil1.671211812113L. Boura2.10108111452
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