TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Moravec vs Radek Sedlacek 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
101212101151210––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:36 and never touched: 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Moravec to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Moravec above · Radek Sedlacek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 82 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Michal Moravec at 57.8%
82 points played in total.
H2H Michal Moravec 11–4 Radek Sedlacek Radek Sedlacek has won 4 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:3657.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 2.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-4 in 15
Moravec
Correct
gap of 7 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1607 vs Sedlacek 1566
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 20% vs Sedlacek 40%
Sedlacek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 40% vs Sedlacek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec +1 · Sedlacek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Moravec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.666 / Sedlacek 2.10
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Moravec)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13251570
Moravec1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite61% won 59 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it89% 25 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it75% 35 of 47
Sedlacek2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 03)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 38 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back30% 13 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec8wins
AwaySedlacek2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMoravec leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec83.3%5 of 6
AwaySedlacek25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec6Sedlacek4n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S2Moravec5Sedlacek5n = 10split evenly
S3Moravec7Sedlacek3n = 10Moravec took 7 of 10
S4Moravec2Sedlacek5n = 7Sedlacek took 5 of 7
S5Moravec5Sedlacek0n = 5Moravec took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecSedlacekM − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.837.5+5.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecSedlacekBasisWin rate · lifetime214 / 419 vs 164 / 34951.1%47%214 / 419 vs 164 / 349Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.138.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.67/Sedlacek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.8%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 15:40M. Moravec53911148113R. Sedlacek52119121192
WSep 13 · 20:45M. Moravec511110145113R. Sedlacek47612121162
WSep 13 · 20:10M. Moravec521011119113R. Sedlacek4112581152
LAug 24 · 18:15M. Moravec32115881R. Sedlacek4181111113
WAug 24 · 15:45M. Moravec331111113R. Sedlacek126330
WAug 22 · 16:10M. Moravec50118911113R. Sedlacek4471111872
LAug 18 · 14:40M. Moravec2815850R. Sedlacek391711113
WJun 26 · 16:45M. Moravec361411113R. Sedlacek2012350
WJun 26 · 14:15M. Moravec5511101112113R. Sedlacek4871281472
WMay 6 · 10:10M. Moravec3851111113R. Sedlacek31117581
M. Moravec10
LOct 6 · 07:40M. Moravec2.004880T. Krenek1.731111113LOct 6 · 06:40M. Moravec1.67715111142D. Velky Jr2.10111749113WOct 5 · 12:45J. Skvrna1.8039130M. Moravec1.911111153LOct 5 · 12:15M. Moravec1.83651391T. Krenek1.83111111113LOct 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.7316611163M. Moravec2.0014119141LOct 5 · 10:15R. Benes1.91111511113M. Moravec1.808131381LOct 3 · 17:19M. Moravec1.61911701M. Raska2.2011811113WOct 3 · 15:40M. Moravec1.80911148113R. Sedlacek1.91119121192WOct 3 · 14:40M. Moravec1.537101111113M. Raska2.3811124962LOct 3 · 13:40M. Moravec1.5791111582A. Cizek2.25117411113
R. Sedlacek10
LOct 6 · 08:10D. Velky Jr1.8071111133R. Sedlacek1.911187111WOct 6 · 07:10R. Sedlacek2.0011115113T. Krenek1.73881191WOct 3 · 16:50A. Cizek2.603111061R. Sedlacek1.4411912113LOct 3 · 15:40M. Moravec1.80911148113R. Sedlacek1.91119121192LOct 3 · 15:10A. Cizek2.101111113R. Sedlacek1.676430LOct 3 · 14:10R. Sedlacek1.476101181M. Raska2.5011127113WOct 3 · 13:04A. Kanak1.9115681152R. Sedlacek1.801311115113WOct 3 · 11:40R. Sedlacek1.67116611143A. Kanak2.10811115122WOct 3 · 10:40R. Sedlacek1.57811511123J. Volny2.25119117102LOct 3 · 09:40R. Sedlacek1.50911101172M. Raska2.50117128113
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R. Sedlacek
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