TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ales Brandtl Snr vs Radovan Pisa 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1169111210117––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:13 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeAles Brandtl Snr to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Brandtl Snr above · Radovan Pisa below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 77 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Ales Brandtl Snr at 59.7%
77 points played in total.
H2H Ales Brandtl Snr 3–2 Radovan Pisa Radovan Pisa has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:1359.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Snr
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Snr 1675 vs Pisa 1684
Pisa
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snr 80% vs Pisa 40%
Snr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snr 60% vs Pisa 40%
Snr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Snr -1 · Pisa +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Snr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 1.571 / Pisa 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Snr)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251401
Snr1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite44% won 7 of 16
Up 2–0, closes it75% 6 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it54% 7 of 13
Pisa2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 86 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back29% 29 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSnr3wins
AwayPisa2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderSnr leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSnr75%3 of 4
AwayPisan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snr4Pisa1n = 5Snr took 4 of 5
S2Snr4Pisa1n = 5Snr took 4 of 5
S3Snr3Pisa2n = 5Snr took 3 of 5
S4Snr1Pisa2n = 3Pisa took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSnrPisaS − PBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match37.832.0+5.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrPisaBasisWin rate · lifetime20 / 50 vs 382 / 79040%48.4%20 / 50 vs 382 / 790Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SnrSnr 1.57/Pisa 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Snr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Snr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 6 · 07:15A. Snr4311912113R. Pisa346111071
WSep 3 · 20:14A. Snr331111113R. Pisa158250
LSep 3 · 18:45A. Snr311011731R. Pisa4012611113
LJun 16 · 20:19A. Snr49111188112R. Pisa51791111133
WJun 16 · 18:15A. Snr331111113R. Pisa209560
A. Snr10
LOct 6 · 06:15A. Snr2.00781191M. Makara1.7311119113WOct 6 · 05:15A. Snr1.911191110113T. Liska1.8011141252WOct 4 · 08:43A. Snr2.10811114123L. Dobias1.67114911102WOct 4 · 07:45A. Snr2.0071111113L. Rulc1.73115661WOct 4 · 06:15L. Dobias1.5057120A. Snr2.501111143WOct 4 · 05:45M. Makara2.00691121A. Snr1.7311119113WSep 18 · 20:13L. Dobias1.4491190A. Snr2.631113113LSep 18 · 19:15A. Snr2.00671181J. Krames Sr1.7311118113LSep 18 · 18:15A. Snr2.6369121142L. Dobias1.441111109113LSep 18 · 17:15A. Snr1.8310990V. Burylov1.831211113
R. Pisa10
WOct 6 · 06:45R. Pisa1.8311119113T. Liska1.83331131WOct 6 · 05:45R. Pisa1.731111113M. Makara2.005350LOct 5 · 08:23R. Pisa3.75119841P. Wasik1.2591111113LOct 5 · 07:45R. Pisa2.0011115792V. Burylov1.73921111113LOct 5 · 06:15P. Wasik1.401111113R. Pisa2.753950WOct 5 · 05:45L. Dobias1.57129111062R. Pisa2.251011412113LOct 4 · 12:55R. Pisa2.109450L. Heinzl1.671111113WOct 4 · 11:45L. Heinzl1.73510111192R. Pisa2.00111277113LOct 4 · 10:45M. Kocvara1.9191114113R. Pisa1.801151261LOct 4 · 09:15O. Kaderabek2.00121113113R. Pisa1.731431181
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