TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Michal Stibor vs Petr Wasik 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
2111113411––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:11 and never touched: 68.7% is still 68.7%
Graded at full timePetr Wasik to win
68.7%
68.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Stibor above · Petr Wasik below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 52 set 3, 4-11 · our read held Petr Wasik at 68.7%
52 points played in total.
H2H Michal Stibor 3–8 Petr Wasik Michal Stibor has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:1168.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 2.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Wasik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-8 in 11
Wasik
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stibor 1677 vs Wasik 1780
Wasik
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stibor 20% vs Wasik 40%
Wasik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stibor 30% vs Wasik 50%
Wasik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stibor -3 · Wasik +1
Stibor
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Wasik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wasik form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStibor 2.75 / Wasik 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Wasik)-2.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250999
Stibor2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 27 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back25% 10 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Wasik1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 05)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 47 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it79% 33 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStibor3wins
AwayWasik7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderWasik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStibor50%2 of 4
AwayWasik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stibor4Wasik6n = 10Wasik took 6 of 10
S2Stibor3Wasik7n = 10Wasik took 7 of 10
S3Stibor2Wasik8n = 10Wasik took 8 of 10
S4Stibor4Wasik3n = 7Stibor took 4 of 7
S5Stibor2Wasik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStiborWasikS − WBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.941.2−6.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStiborWasikBasisWin rate · lifetime175 / 333 vs 89 / 14952.6%59.7%175 / 333 vs 89 / 149Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WasikStibor 2.75/Wasik 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.7%
Wasik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Wasik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 05:45M. Stibor521461011113P. Wasik50121112692
LAug 19 · 12:14M. Stibor4111116492P. Wasik45751111113
WAug 19 · 11:15M. Stibor50911811113P. Wasik4811811992
LJul 2 · 08:54M. Stibor24121651P. Wasik43101111113
LJul 2 · 06:45M. Stibor248970P. Wasik331111113
LJul 1 · 06:15M. Stibor1631030P. Wasik341112113
LMay 20 · 11:15M. Stibor4151171172P. Wasik47115119113
LMay 19 · 09:15M. Stibor346111161P. Wasik4311138113
LApr 8 · 11:15M. Stibor2610970P. Wasik341211113
WNov 10 · 17:59M. Stibor4111811113P. Wasik35911691
M. Stibor10
WOct 6 · 12:13L. Dobias1.53991181M. Stibor2.3811114113LOct 6 · 11:15M. Stibor1.801171171J. Rochowanski1.9113115113LOct 6 · 09:15M. Stibor2.259990L. Dobias1.571111113LSep 30 · 12:14M. Stibor1.83141211672L. Veigl1.831610511113LSep 30 · 11:45L. Dobias1.5791111113M. Stibor2.25113571WSep 30 · 10:45V. Burylov2.001191631M. Stibor1.7381118113LSep 30 · 09:15L. Veigl2.001111113M. Stibor1.739960LSep 29 · 12:48L. Veigl2.20101111113M. Stibor1.61125771WSep 29 · 11:45M. Stibor1.73114116113L. Veigl2.0061131152LSep 29 · 10:15J. Rochowanski2.0011511113M. Stibor1.73811841
P. Wasik10
WOct 6 · 11:45P. Wasik1.8312116113L. Dobias1.831091151LOct 6 · 09:45J. Rochowanski3.00812411113P. Wasik1.36111011982WOct 5 · 08:23R. Pisa3.75119841P. Wasik1.2591111113LOct 5 · 07:15P. Wasik1.8311811862L. Dobias1.83911911113WOct 5 · 06:15P. Wasik1.401111113R. Pisa2.753950LOct 5 · 05:15P. Wasik1.501151031V. Burylov2.5061112113LSep 24 · 08:19P. Wasik1.9184121232T. Hlavacek1.8011111010113WSep 24 · 07:15T. Hlavacek1.67681471P. Wasik2.10111112113LSep 24 · 06:45P. Wasik1.731112791M. Bouska2.0081411113LSep 24 · 05:45P. Wasik1.36121112692M. Stibor3.001461011113
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