TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mariusz Leczycki vs Andrzej Krezel 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Mariusz Leczycki
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711117711611––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:40 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrzej Krezel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMariusz Leczycki above · Andrzej Krezel below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 71 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Andrzej Krezel at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Leczycki 0–3 Andrzej Krezel Mariusz Leczycki has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:4054.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Krezel
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Krezel
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leczycki 1338 vs Krezel 1447
Krezel
Correct
both rated, 109 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leczycki 20% vs Krezel 60%
Krezel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leczycki 60% vs Krezel 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Leczycki -1 · Krezel +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Krezel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leczycki form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeczycki 2.00 / Krezel 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Krezel)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13248444
Leczycki2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Krezel1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 39 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it83% 34 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeLeczycki0wins
AwayKrezel3wins
Krezel leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLeczyckin = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayKrezel100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leczycki0Krezel3n = 3Krezel took 3 of 3
S2Leczycki2Krezel1n = 3Leczycki took 2 of 3
S3Leczycki1Krezel2n = 3Krezel took 2 of 3
S4Leczycki0Krezel3n = 3Krezel took 3 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away3100%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricLeczyckiKrezelL − KBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match34.342.0−7.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeczyckiKrezelBasisWin rate · lifetime6 / 12 vs 111 / 28250%39.4%6 / 12 vs 111 / 282Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.535.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrezelLeczycki 2.00/Krezel 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krezel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krezel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 5 · 16:55M. Leczycki31711761A. Krezel4011711113
LOct 1 · 23:45M. Leczycki31711851A. Krezel4011711113
LOct 1 · 15:50M. Leczycki418121291A. Krezel46111410113
M. Leczycki10
LOct 5 · 15:50M. Leczycki2.63111111592M. Zielinski1.44941311113WOct 2 · 02:35M. Leczycki1.111111113A. Barton6.008590LOct 2 · 01:00M. Leczycki1.91661161A. Fomin1.8011119113LOct 1 · 23:45M. Leczycki1.73711851A. Krezel2.0011711113LOct 1 · 22:10M. Leczycki1.20101180A. Skupinski4.331213113WOct 1 · 21:00M. Leczycki1.57411811123Z. Nocun2.25119118102WOct 1 · 19:40A. Skupinski2.7561040M. Leczycki1.401112113WOct 1 · 18:55A. Fomin1.67311156102M. Leczycki2.101191311123WOct 1 · 18:10M. Leczycki1.25119114113A. Barton3.7581171152WOct 1 · 16:35M. Leczycki2.0012115113Z. Nocun1.731071181
A. Krezel10
WOct 5 · 15:25M. Kumor2.207370A. Krezel1.611111113LOct 2 · 02:10A. Krezel2.007530Z. Nocun1.731111113WOct 2 · 00:35A. Skupinski2.75117831A. Krezel1.4081111113WOct 1 · 23:45M. Leczycki1.73711851A. Krezel2.0011711113LOct 1 · 22:55A. Krezel1.05711121192A. Barton8.50118147113LOct 1 · 21:45A. Krezel1.80811611142A. Fomin1.91119116163WOct 1 · 20:05A. Krezel1.67111213113Z. Nocun2.109101561LOct 1 · 18:30A. Skupinski3.401111149113A. Krezel1.30513121192LOct 1 · 17:45A. Fomin1.91117911143A. Krezel1.80811117122WOct 1 · 16:55A. Krezel1.101111113A. Barton6.507290
Upcoming Matches
M. Leczycki
A. Krezel
Oct 5 · 18:10A. Krezel2.38M. Zielinski1.53—Oct 5 · 19:20A. Krezel2.38H. Tkaczyk1.53—Oct 5 · 20:30A. Krezel1.83M. Lewczuk1.83—Oct 5 · 21:20A. Krezel—M. Kumor——Oct 5 · 22:50A. Krezel1.83M. Leczycki1.83—Oct 5 · 23:50A. Krezel1.83M. Lewczuk1.83—Oct 6 · 00:50A. Krezel2.38H. Tkaczyk1.53—Oct 6 · 01:50A. Krezel—M. Zielinski——
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