TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Ivan Kolenciak vs Ivo Palmi 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210911511511––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:49 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Kolenciak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Kolenciak above · Ivo Palmi below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 74 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Ivan Kolenciak at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kolenciak 10–8 Ivo Palmi Ivo Palmi has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:4954.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kolenciak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Kolenciak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolenciak 1162 vs Palmi 1168
Palmi
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolenciak 20% vs Palmi 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolenciak 20% vs Palmi 50%
Palmi
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolenciak -3 · Palmi -1
Kolenciak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kolenciak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Palmi form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolenciak 1.727 / Palmi 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kolenciak)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13243665
Kolenciak1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite49% won 23 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it69% 18 of 26
Palmi2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 14 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back22% 4 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolenciak6wins
AwayPalmi4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKolenciak leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolenciak66.7%2 of 3
AwayPalmi42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolenciak3Palmi7n = 10Palmi took 7 of 10
S2Kolenciak8Palmi2n = 10Kolenciak took 8 of 10
S3Kolenciak6Palmi4n = 10Kolenciak took 6 of 10
S4Kolenciak4Palmi4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolenciakPalmiK − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.935.4+1.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolenciakPalmiBasisWin rate · lifetime85 / 189 vs 58 / 13645%42.7%85 / 189 vs 58 / 136Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolenciakKolenciak 1.73/Palmi 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kolenciak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Palmi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 12:30I. Kolenciak342111381I. Palmi4411715113
WSep 9 · 10:30I. Kolenciak46411812113I. Palmi48119111072
LSep 6 · 11:30I. Kolenciak33711781I. Palmi3811511113
WAug 7 · 13:30I. Kolenciak3521111113I. Palmi29118641
WAug 7 · 12:00I. Kolenciak331111113I. Palmi238690
LJul 17 · 10:00I. Kolenciak381091181I. Palmi4112117113
WMay 30 · 15:30I. Kolenciak4071111113I. Palmi35118881
WMay 22 · 13:30I. Kolenciak331111113I. Palmi228680
WMay 22 · 10:00I. Kolenciak4071111113I. Palmi32119571
LMay 16 · 10:00I. Kolenciak37118991I. Palmi4291111113
I. Kolenciak10
LOct 5 · 10:00M. Derco1.4411811113I. Kolenciak2.63511761LSep 18 · 13:00J. Toth1.67118118113I. Kolenciak2.1061171182LSep 18 · 12:30I. Palmi2.2511715113I. Kolenciak1.572111381WSep 18 · 11:30I. Kolenciak1.8011118113A. Kanak1.91881191LSep 18 · 10:30J. Toth2.001111113I. Kolenciak1.739930WSep 12 · 17:01M. Blaha1.2861161252I. Kolenciak3.301161110113LSep 12 · 16:30I. Kolenciak1.739760Z. Luksa2.001111113LSep 12 · 15:00I. Kolenciak3.40691161R. Adamczyk1.3011116113LSep 12 · 14:00M. Blaha1.361511113I. Kolenciak3.0013730LSep 9 · 13:30I. Kolenciak1.6166111362J. Toth2.201111511113
I. Palmi10
LOct 5 · 10:30I. Palmi2.505660M. Stolba1.501111113WSep 29 · 12:59J. Toth1.919760I. Palmi1.801111113LSep 29 · 12:00Z. Luksa2.10381111113I. Palmi1.6711114992LSep 29 · 11:00J. Toth2.00111238113I. Palmi1.73610111172LSep 29 · 10:30I. Palmi2.10101070A. Kanak1.671212113WSep 18 · 13:28I. Palmi2.20118811113A. Kanak1.6191111842WSep 18 · 12:30I. Palmi2.2511715113I. Kolenciak1.572111381WSep 18 · 11:00I. Palmi1.8351111123J. Toth1.831185101LSep 18 · 10:00A. Kanak1.611191311113I. Palmi2.2081115872WSep 9 · 13:01I. Palmi1.6711912113Z. Luksa2.109111041
Upcoming Matches
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