TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Svec vs Jan Potensky 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117811911117711
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:58 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeJiri Svec to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Svec above · Jan Potensky below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 93 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Jiri Svec at 57.7%
93 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Svec 15–14 Jan Potensky Jan Potensky has won 14 of their 29 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5857.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Svec
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-14 in 29
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svec 1145 vs Potensky 1175
Potensky
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svec 20% vs Potensky 40%
Potensky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svec 30% vs Potensky 50%
Potensky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svec -2 · Potensky +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Svec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svec form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvec 1.615 / Potensky 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Svec)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13243613
Svec1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 50 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it83% 38 of 46
Potensky2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 46 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvec5wins
AwayPotensky5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvec71.4%5 of 7
AwayPotensky100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svec7Potensky3n = 10Svec took 7 of 10
S2Svec2Potensky8n = 10Potensky took 8 of 10
S3Svec5Potensky5n = 10split evenly
S4Svec5Potensky4n = 9Svec took 5 of 9
S5Svec2Potensky2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvecPotenskyS − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.638.5+0.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvecPotenskyBasisWin rate · lifetime385 / 837 vs 223 / 47146%47.4%385 / 837 vs 223 / 471Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.935.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvecSvec 1.61/Potensky 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Svec · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Potensky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 07:00J. Svec4611891172J. Potensky47711117113
WAug 24 · 09:28J. Svec4111514113J. Potensky324111251
LAug 24 · 07:00J. Svec49810111192J. Potensky43111245113
WAug 11 · 08:30J. Svec47111168113J. Potensky4097111122
WJul 14 · 09:30J. Svec46117116113J. Potensky4771191192
WJul 14 · 06:30J. Svec3811113133J. Potensky344811111
LJun 24 · 09:09J. Svec167450J. Potensky331111113
LJun 24 · 06:30J. Svec29113781J. Potensky4071111113
LMay 25 · 09:00J. Svec32591171J. Potensky4011117113
WMay 25 · 06:30J. Svec4211811123J. Potensky293115101
J. Svec10
LOct 5 · 06:00L. Novotny3.2511118113J. Svec1.33381161LOct 4 · 09:06J. Svec2.001011871J. Martinek1.7312611113WOct 4 · 08:30J. Svec1.44111161113J. Martinek2.6394111112LOct 4 · 07:00J. Svec1.80311941M. Bohac1.9111711113LOct 4 · 06:00M. Syroha1.611211118113J. Svec2.2014581192LOct 3 · 17:30L. Havel1.80111011113J. Svec1.91612571LOct 3 · 16:30L. Havel1.671111113J. Svec2.109880WOct 3 · 15:30J. Svec1.9511711123M. Bohac1.757117101WOct 3 · 14:30V. Hruska Sr1.53712111192J. Svec2.38111497113LSep 27 · 09:01A. Schneeberger1.531111133J. Svec2.3887110
J. Potensky10
LOct 5 · 08:00L. Novotny1.5311116113J. Potensky2.38961131WOct 5 · 06:30J. Potensky1.831110119113L. Madle1.8341291192LOct 3 · 03:30L. Havrda1.731211113J. Potensky2.0010260LOct 3 · 02:30L. Havrda1.911111113J. Potensky1.807950WOct 3 · 01:00J. Martinek2.3810650J. Potensky1.531211113LOct 2 · 23:30J. Potensky2.10112134102V. Stach1.678111111123WOct 2 · 22:00J. Potensky1.4011311113J. Cernik2.75511731LOct 1 · 09:29L. Novotny1.831111113J. Potensky1.837780WOct 1 · 08:00J. Grohsgott1.61661181J. Potensky2.2011113113LOct 1 · 07:00L. Novotny2.2011116113J. Potensky1.61761151
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.