TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vaclav Zidek vs Marek Volny 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118711811311––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:08 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVaclav Zidek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVaclav Zidek above · Marek Volny below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 1-4
Point 61 set 4, 1-4 · our read held Vaclav Zidek at 54.0%
61 points drawn · the score is 9 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Vaclav Zidek 2–2 Marek Volny Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Volny beat Zidek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:0854.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Volny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zidek 1596 vs Volny 1547
Zidek
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zidek 60% vs Volny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zidek 50% vs Volny 70%
Volny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zidek +2 · Volny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Zidek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZidek 1.833 / Volny 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zidek)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13243556
Zidek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Volny1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeZidek2wins
AwayVolny2wins
Level at 2–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZidek66.7%2 of 3
AwayVolnyn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zidek3Volny1n = 4Zidek took 3 of 4
S2Zidek2Volny2n = 4split evenly
S3Zidek2Volny2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricZidekVolnyZ − VBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match33.033.00.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZidekVolnyBasisWin rate · lifetime230 / 414 vs 100 / 19155.6%52.4%230 / 414 vs 100 / 191Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZidekZidek 1.83/Volny 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Zidek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Volny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LOct 4 · 10:00V. Zidek351191051M. Volny4281112113
LMay 22 · 20:59V. Zidek2481060M. Volny341112113
WMay 22 · 20:30V. Zidek391711113M. Volny2915950
WMay 10 · 20:30V. Zidek341211113M. Volny2710890
V. Zidek10
WOct 4 · 12:00V. Zidek1.441111113J. Levicky2.635610WOct 4 · 11:30D. Oborny2.3861161182V. Zidek1.53114118113LOct 4 · 10:00V. Zidek1.731191051M. Volny2.0081112113WSep 27 · 09:00V. Zidek1.40811118113J. Levicky2.7511651132LSep 27 · 08:30V. Zidek1.50117581D. Oborny2.5081111113LSep 27 · 07:00V. Zidek2.001111821M. Heczko1.7313711113WSep 27 · 06:00J. Levicky2.631311851V. Zidek1.4415711113LSep 26 · 13:30P. Slavik1.60111113113V. Zidek2.201341171LSep 26 · 12:30V. Zidek2.5071161172P. Slavik1.50112118113WSep 26 · 11:00V. Zidek1.83991111113V. Adamczyk1.8311116872
M. Volny10
LOct 4 · 12:30M. Volny2.63881171D. Oborny1.4411117113WOct 4 · 11:00M. Volny1.501191311113J. Levicky2.50131111622WOct 4 · 10:00V. Zidek1.731191051M. Volny2.0081112113WSep 29 · 09:28D. Machander1.67811581M. Volny2.1011811113LSep 29 · 08:00D. Machander1.7311119113M. Volny2.00461131WSep 29 · 07:00M. Koral2.3854100M. Volny1.531111123WSep 29 · 06:30M. Volny1.331111113M. Blejchar3.257450WSep 20 · 21:12M. Volny1.2512511113L. Velicka3.751011591WSep 20 · 20:30L. Velicka2.3810121111112M. Volny1.53121496133LSep 20 · 19:30M. Volny1.679680D. Oborny2.101111113
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