TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Dominik Oborny vs Vaclav Zidek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611114611118811
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:23 and never touched: 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeVaclav Zidek to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Oborny above · Vaclav Zidek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 87 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Vaclav Zidek at 61.6%
87 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Oborny 11–20 Vaclav Zidek Dominik Oborny has won 11 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2361.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Zidek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-20 in 31
Zidek
Correct
gap of 9 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oborny 1563 vs Zidek 1571
Zidek
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oborny 60% vs Zidek 40%
Oborny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oborny 40% vs Zidek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oborny -1 · Zidek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Zidek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zidek form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOborny 2.375 / Zidek 1.533
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Zidek)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13238608
Oborny2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 53 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 33
Zidek1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 57 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it85% 22 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it79% 41 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOborny3wins
AwayZidek7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZidek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOborny66.7%2 of 3
AwayZidek85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oborny3Zidek7n = 10Zidek took 7 of 10
S2Oborny6Zidek4n = 10Oborny took 6 of 10
S3Oborny2Zidek8n = 10Zidek took 8 of 10
S4Oborny2Zidek5n = 7Zidek took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricObornyZidekO − ZBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.539.2−6.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricObornyZidekBasisWin rate · lifetime322 / 618 vs 228 / 41252.1%55.3%322 / 618 vs 228 / 412Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZidekOborny 2.38/Zidek 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Zidek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zidek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 27 · 08:30D. Oborny4181111113V. Zidek31117581
LSep 17 · 20:59D. Oborny35512991V. Zidek43111011113
WSep 17 · 20:00D. Oborny50118119113V. Zidek4051151182
LAug 5 · 18:00D. Oborny30912541V. Zidek43111011113
LAug 3 · 19:30D. Oborny27912421V. Zidek43111011113
WJul 26 · 20:00D. Oborny4214116113V. Zidek381281171
LJul 25 · 18:00D. Oborny2045110V. Zidek351111133
LJul 4 · 12:00D. Oborny4413115872V. Zidek531191111113
LJul 4 · 09:30D. Oborny149230V. Zidek331111113
LJul 4 · 06:00D. Oborny227960V. Zidek331111113
D. Oborny10
WOct 4 · 12:30M. Volny2.63881171D. Oborny1.4411117113LOct 4 · 10:30J. Levicky1.837111011113D. Oborny1.8311912582WOct 4 · 09:29D. Oborny1.53119119113S. Byrtus2.3881171182LOct 4 · 08:30D. Oborny1.6711118582D. Machander2.10371111113WOct 4 · 07:00D. Oborny1.57111111113S. Byrtus2.25791351WOct 4 · 06:00J. Levicky1.83211851D. Oborny1.8311311113LSep 28 · 17:00J. Levicky1.73138411113D. Oborny2.00111111992LSep 28 · 16:30M. Heczko1.831111113D. Oborny1.836790WSep 28 · 15:30D. Oborny1.83111210113J. Levicky1.837101251LSep 28 · 14:30J. Stoch1.831111113D. Oborny1.838930
V. Zidek10
WOct 4 · 12:00V. Zidek1.441111113J. Levicky2.635610LOct 4 · 10:00V. Zidek1.731191051M. Volny2.0081112113WSep 27 · 09:00V. Zidek1.40811118113J. Levicky2.7511651132LSep 27 · 08:30V. Zidek1.50117581D. Oborny2.5081111113LSep 27 · 07:00V. Zidek2.001111821M. Heczko1.7313711113WSep 27 · 06:00J. Levicky2.631311851V. Zidek1.4415711113LSep 26 · 13:30P. Slavik1.60111113113V. Zidek2.201341171LSep 26 · 12:30V. Zidek2.5071161172P. Slavik1.50112118113WSep 26 · 11:00V. Zidek1.83991111113V. Adamczyk1.8311116872WSep 26 · 10:00J. Levicky2.6341211962V. Zidek1.441110811113
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