TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Dominik Oborny vs Dalimil Machander 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
113117811511811
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:23 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeDominik Oborny to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDominik Oborny above · Dalimil Machander below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 86 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Dominik Oborny at 56.6%
86 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Oborny 4–4 Dalimil Machander Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2356.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Oborny
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oborny 1575 vs Machander 1503
Oborny
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oborny 60% vs Machander 40%
Oborny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oborny 50% vs Machander 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oborny +2 · Machander -3
Machander
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Oborny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOborny 1.666 / Machander 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Oborny)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13238756
Oborny1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 89 of 140
Up 2–0, closes it96% 51 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it87% 78 of 90
Machander2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 59 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back28% 23 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back17% 9 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeOborny4wins
AwayMachander4wins
3 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOborny66.7%4 of 6
AwayMachandern = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oborny6Machander2n = 8Oborny took 6 of 8
S2Oborny5Machander3n = 8Oborny took 5 of 8
S3Oborny5Machander3n = 8Oborny took 5 of 8
S4Oborny2Machander3n = 5Machander took 3 of 5
S5Oborny0Machander3n = 3Machander took 3 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricObornyMachanderO − MBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match36.435.2+1.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricObornyMachanderBasisWin rate · lifetime322 / 617 vs 182 / 40052.2%45.5%322 / 617 vs 182 / 400Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.040.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ObornyOborny 1.67/Machander 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Oborny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Machander won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 25 · 08:58D. Oborny3841111482D. Machander44119211113
LSep 25 · 08:30D. Oborny248790D. Machander331111113
WSep 20 · 09:17D. Oborny4011117113D. Machander33871171
LSep 20 · 06:30D. Oborny3911117642D. Machander43641111113
WSep 18 · 18:00D. Oborny331111113D. Machander258980
WSep 14 · 17:03D. Oborny3911611113D. Machander35711981
WSep 14 · 15:30D. Oborny341112113D. Machander2691070
LJun 6 · 15:30D. Oborny4411911762D. Machander43511511113
D. Oborny10
WOct 4 · 09:29D. Oborny1.53119119113S. Byrtus2.3881171182WOct 4 · 07:00D. Oborny1.57111111113S. Byrtus2.25791351WOct 4 · 06:00J. Levicky1.83211851D. Oborny1.8311311113LSep 28 · 17:00J. Levicky1.73138411113D. Oborny2.00111111992LSep 28 · 16:30M. Heczko1.831111113D. Oborny1.836790WSep 28 · 15:30D. Oborny1.83111210113J. Levicky1.837101251LSep 28 · 14:30J. Stoch1.831111113D. Oborny1.838930LSep 28 · 13:30D. Oborny2.0081111121R. Skacelik1.7211813143WSep 28 · 12:30M. Heczko1.83101181362D. Oborny1.831241111113WSep 28 · 11:30D. Oborny2.5011611113R. Skacelik1.50811861
D. Machander10
WOct 4 · 09:00D. Machander2.381511109113J. Levicky1.53135121192LOct 4 · 07:30D. Machander2.20111081152J. Levicky1.61712114113LOct 4 · 06:30S. Byrtus1.7311119113D. Machander2.00561161LOct 1 · 09:30P. Osvald1.731111113D. Machander2.005780WOct 1 · 08:00D. Machander1.5781111113P. Chovanec2.25118631WOct 1 · 07:30P. Smetka2.6311118682D. Machander1.44841111113LOct 1 · 06:00D. Machander1.8361171162P. Osvald1.83119119113LSep 29 · 09:28D. Machander1.67811581M. Volny2.1011811113WSep 29 · 08:00D. Machander1.7311119113M. Volny2.00461131LSep 29 · 07:30M. Blejchar2.63511711113D. Machander1.4411811982
Upcoming Matches
D. Oborny
D. Machander
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.