TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Samuel Byrtus vs Dalimil Machander 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115116911116––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:22 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeSamuel Byrtus to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSamuel Byrtus above · Dalimil Machander below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 70 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Samuel Byrtus at 54.9%
70 points played in total.
H2H Samuel Byrtus 12–10 Dalimil Machander Dalimil Machander has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2254.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Byrtus
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-10 in 22
Byrtus
Correct
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Byrtus 1571 vs Machander 1503
Byrtus
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Byrtus 40% vs Machander 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Byrtus 20% vs Machander 40%
Machander
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Byrtus -1 · Machander -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Byrtus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Byrtus form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsByrtus 1.727 / Machander 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Byrtus)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13237574
Byrtus1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 9 days ago (Sep 25) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 86 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it91% 40 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it75% 59 of 79
Machander2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 59 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back28% 23 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back17% 9 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeByrtus6wins
AwayMachander4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderByrtus leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeByrtus80%4 of 5
AwayMachander60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Byrtus5Machander5n = 10split evenly
S2Byrtus5Machander5n = 10split evenly
S3Byrtus6Machander4n = 10Byrtus took 6 of 10
S4Byrtus5Machander4n = 9Byrtus took 5 of 9
S5Byrtus3Machander2n = 5Byrtus took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricByrtusMachanderB − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.839.0+2.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricByrtusMachanderBasisWin rate · lifetime289 / 561 vs 182 / 40051.5%45.5%289 / 561 vs 182 / 400Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.540.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ByrtusByrtus 1.73/Machander 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Byrtus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Byrtus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 06:30S. Byrtus4211119113D. Machander28561161
LSep 22 · 08:58S. Byrtus4511681192D. Machander47811116113
LSep 22 · 07:30S. Byrtus4571111972D. Machander46115811113
WSep 14 · 14:00S. Byrtus48116911113D. Machander3961111742
LSep 12 · 16:00S. Byrtus368117101D. Machander4011611123
LAug 31 · 07:30S. Byrtus27591121D. Machander4211119113
WAug 30 · 21:29S. Byrtus47611117123D. Machander45114911102
WAug 30 · 18:00S. Byrtus331111113D. Machander248970
WAug 28 · 14:00S. Byrtus4011711113D. Machander30711571
WAug 19 · 08:30S. Byrtus558141111113D. Machander4911169762
S. Byrtus10
LOct 4 · 07:00D. Oborny1.57111111113S. Byrtus2.25791351LSep 25 · 17:30S. Byrtus2.25671161A. Walek1.5711113113WSep 25 · 16:30A. Walek2.00710110S. Byrtus1.731112133WSep 25 · 15:30S. Byrtus1.8011111010113D. Langer1.9188121282LSep 25 · 14:30D. Heczko1.7311121111113S. Byrtus2.0091413862LSep 22 · 08:58D. Machander2.10811116113S. Byrtus1.6711681192LSep 22 · 08:00S. Byrtus1.3311941282P. Danko3.253111110113LSep 22 · 07:30D. Machander2.20115811113S. Byrtus1.6171111972LSep 22 · 06:00S. Byrtus1.73117531A. Rinka2.0051111113LSep 19 · 09:00D. Langer1.6711611113S. Byrtus2.10811771
D. Machander10
LOct 4 · 07:30D. Machander2.20111081152J. Levicky1.61712114113LOct 1 · 09:30P. Osvald1.731111113D. Machander2.005780WOct 1 · 08:00D. Machander1.5781111113P. Chovanec2.25118631WOct 1 · 07:30P. Smetka2.6311118682D. Machander1.44841111113LOct 1 · 06:00D. Machander1.8361171162P. Osvald1.83119119113LSep 29 · 09:28D. Machander1.67811581M. Volny2.1011811113WSep 29 · 08:00D. Machander1.7311119113M. Volny2.00461131LSep 29 · 07:30M. Blejchar2.63511711113D. Machander1.4411811982WSep 22 · 08:58D. Machander2.10811116113S. Byrtus1.6711681192WSep 22 · 07:30D. Machander2.20115811113S. Byrtus1.6171111972
Upcoming Matches
S. Byrtus
Nothing scheduled
D. Machander
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