TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Varchenko vs Mykhailo Khalenko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911411511––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:08 and never touched: 74.1% is still 74.1%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Khalenko to win
74.1%
74.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Varchenko above · Mykhailo Khalenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 51 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Mykhailo Khalenko at 74.1%
51 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Varchenko 3–5 Mykhailo Khalenko Volodymyr Varchenko has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:0874.1%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 0.9pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Khalenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Khalenko
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varchenko 1167 vs Khalenko 1321
Khalenko
Correct
both rated, 154 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varchenko 0% vs Khalenko 40%
Khalenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varchenko 40% vs Khalenko 60%
Khalenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Varchenko -5 · Khalenko +1
Varchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Khalenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khalenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarchenko 3.25 / Khalenko 1.333
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Khalenko)-0.9pp
Setka Cup · #13240981
Varchenko3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 19 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Khalenko1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 52 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it89% 39 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeVarchenko3wins
AwayKhalenko5wins
5 of 8 to a deciderKhalenko leads 5–3, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarchenko33.3%1 of 3
AwayKhalenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varchenko3Khalenko5n = 8Khalenko took 5 of 8
S2Varchenko4Khalenko4n = 8split evenly
S3Varchenko4Khalenko4n = 8split evenly
S4Varchenko6Khalenko2n = 8Varchenko took 6 of 8
S5Varchenko1Khalenko4n = 5Khalenko took 4 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away450%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricVarchenkoKhalenkoV − KBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match45.245.5−0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarchenkoKhalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 236 vs 191 / 36845.8%51.9%108 / 236 vs 191 / 368Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KhalenkoVarchenko 3.25/Khalenko 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.1%
Khalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Khalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 13 · 05:35V. Varchenko36127981M. Khalenko43101111113
LAug 16 · 07:05V. Varchenko52881111142M. Khalenko54111179163
LJul 11 · 06:30V. Varchenko4467111192M. Khalenko43111182113
LMay 9 · 06:30V. Varchenko49111291162M. Khalenko52814118113
WDec 7 · 12:40V. Varchenko3811114123M. Khalenko357711101
WAug 23 · 07:35V. Varchenko491211114113M. Khalenko4314681142
WAug 16 · 07:50V. Varchenko48121211133M. Khalenko4314108111
LAug 15 · 16:20V. Varchenko46511101192M. Khalenko51119128113
V. Varchenko10
LOct 4 · 12:10V. Kondratenko1.361111133V. Varchenko3.0079110LOct 4 · 11:10V. Varchenko1.73117111092V. Stukalov2.00611912113LOct 3 · 11:05V. Varchenko1.73621191O. Stopin2.0011117113LOct 3 · 09:35V. Varchenko1.8091111992V. Kucheriavyi1.91119611113LOct 3 · 08:05V. Varchenko1.448770S. Osipov2.631111113WOct 3 · 06:35V. Varchenko1.221112133V. Mykhalchenko4.00910110WOct 3 · 05:05V. Varchenko1.671111123P. Ostrovskyi2.1093100LSep 27 · 16:40V. Varchenko1.671111131062V. Kucheriavyi2.10871512113WSep 27 · 15:10V. Varchenko1.83471111143O. Miklukha1.83111167122WSep 27 · 13:40V. Varchenko1.5311911113S. Osipov2.38311841
M. Khalenko10
WOct 4 · 11:40K. Klymenko1.50771171M. Khalenko2.5011111113LOct 4 · 10:40V. Kondratenko2.501491193M. Khalenko1.501211851LOct 2 · 11:35S. Skhabitskiy2.00811711113M. Khalenko1.7311811382LOct 2 · 10:35P. Ostrovskyi1.80718118113M. Khalenko1.91111681182WOct 2 · 09:05V. Stukalov2.757760M. Khalenko1.401111113WOct 2 · 07:05S. Semenets2.38114681M. Khalenko1.5391111113LOct 2 · 05:05V. Mukhin2.00117311113M. Khalenko1.7351111792WSep 27 · 11:35S. Kovalenko2.2081170M. Khalenko1.611113113WSep 27 · 10:35S. Semenets2.0055100M. Khalenko1.731111123WSep 27 · 09:05V. Stukalov2.636920M. Khalenko1.441111113
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