TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Tomas Liska vs Lukas Veigl 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111159111210511
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:09 and never touched: 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeLukas Veigl to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Liska above · Lukas Veigl below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 93 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Lukas Veigl at 54.7%
93 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Liska 34–43 Lukas Veigl Tomas Liska has won 34 of their 77 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:0954.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 7.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Veigl
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
34-43 in 77
Veigl
Correct
gap of 9 in 77, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Liska 1673 vs Veigl 1772
Veigl
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Liska 60% vs Veigl 80%
Veigl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Liska 60% vs Veigl 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Liska +1 · Veigl +3
Veigl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Veigl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Veigl form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLiska 2.20 / Veigl 1.615
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Veigl)-7.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240337
Liska2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 85 of 215
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 53
Veigl1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 03)
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 65 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it75% 43 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLiska3wins
AwayVeigl7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVeigl leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLiska50%3 of 6
AwayVeigl100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Liska6Veigl4n = 10Liska took 6 of 10
S2Liska3Veigl7n = 10Veigl took 7 of 10
S3Liska5Veigl5n = 10split evenly
S4Liska3Veigl5n = 8Veigl took 5 of 8
S5Liska0Veigl3n = 3Veigl took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLiskaVeiglL − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.144.3−2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLiskaVeiglBasisWin rate · lifetime401 / 866 vs 276 / 53746.3%51.4%401 / 866 vs 276 / 537Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.340.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VeiglLiska 2.20/Veigl 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Veigl · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Veigl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 27 · 17:45T. Liska36126991L. Veigl43101111113
LSep 20 · 16:54T. Liska511011111182L. Veigl52121397113
LSep 8 · 12:58T. Liska227690L. Veigl331111113
LSep 8 · 12:00T. Liska391015771L. Veigl47121311113
WJul 9 · 16:53T. Liska371111153L. Veigl3089130
LJul 9 · 15:45T. Liska651313199112L. Veigl6715111711133
LJun 27 · 19:15T. Liska401179131L. Veigl4361111153
WJun 20 · 19:30T. Liska4111811113L. Veigl31311981
LJun 11 · 14:00T. Liska4815761192L. Veigl531311117113
T. Liska10
LOct 4 · 19:15T. Liska1.40111011882O. Mezera2.75512311113LOct 4 · 18:15T. Liska2.108660S. Rejent1.671111113WOct 2 · 16:15T. Liska1.581111133O. Mezera2.2547110LOct 2 · 15:45M. Makara1.831411113T. Liska1.8312870LOct 2 · 14:45O. Mezera2.501181110113T. Liska1.5081131272WOct 2 · 13:15M. Vyskocil1.509118121T. Liska2.5011911143WOct 1 · 08:43T. Liska1.7371111123M. Ullman2.001176101WOct 1 · 07:45T. Liska1.5791111113J. Senk2.25113821LOct 1 · 06:15M. Vyskocil1.53101111113T. Liska2.38127861WOct 1 · 05:45M. Ullman1.9195100T. Liska1.801111123
L. Veigl10
WOct 4 · 19:45S. Rejent2.2571171142L. Veigl1.57114119113WOct 4 · 18:45O. Mezera2.207121011102L. Veigl1.611110129123WOct 3 · 08:44L. Veigl2.101113113J. Krames Sr1.6791180WOct 3 · 07:45M. Makara2.0087100L. Veigl1.731111123WOct 3 · 06:45O. Mezera2.20912118152L. Veigl1.611110711173LOct 3 · 05:15J. Krames Sr1.611191114113L. Veigl2.2081121662WSep 30 · 12:14M. Stibor1.83141211672L. Veigl1.831610511113LSep 30 · 11:15L. Veigl2.00981111102V. Burylov1.73111196123LSep 30 · 10:15L. Veigl2.0058150L. Dobias1.731111173WSep 30 · 09:15L. Veigl2.001111113M. Stibor1.739960
Upcoming Matches
T. Liska
L. Veigl
Nothing scheduled
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