TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ondrej Mezera vs Lukas Veigl 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91112101178111517
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:44 and never touched: 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeLukas Veigl to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Lukas Veigl @ 1.61 · Won
How it is goingOndrej Mezera above · Lukas Veigl below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 15-17
Point 111 set 5, 15-17 · our read held Lukas Veigl at 60.9%
111 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Mezera 7–10 Lukas Veigl Ondrej Mezera has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 05:4460.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 1.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Veigl
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-10 in 17
Veigl
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mezera 1579 vs Veigl 1739
Veigl
Correct
both rated, 160 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mezera 20% vs Veigl 40%
Veigl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mezera 30% vs Veigl 60%
Veigl
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mezera -3 · Veigl -1
Mezera
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Veigl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Veigl form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMezera 2.20 / Veigl 1.615
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Veigl)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234435
Mezera2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog45% won 119 of 265
Down 0–1, comes back31% 50 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back18% 14 of 79
Veigl1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 63 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it92% 23 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it75% 41 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMezera4wins
AwayVeigl6wins
7 of 10 to a deciderVeigl leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMezera33.3%1 of 3
AwayVeigl57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mezera3Veigl7n = 10Veigl took 7 of 10
S2Mezera7Veigl3n = 10Mezera took 7 of 10
S3Mezera2Veigl8n = 10Veigl took 8 of 10
S4Mezera5Veigl5n = 10split evenly
S5Mezera3Veigl3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMezeraVeiglM − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match43.646.9−3.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMezeraVeiglBasisWin rate · lifetime391 / 802 vs 281 / 54548.8%51.6%391 / 802 vs 281 / 545Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.740.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VeiglMezera 2.20/Veigl 1.61
Hit
What we said
60.9%
Veigl · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Lukas Veigl @ 1.61 · Won
What happened
2–3
Veigl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 24 · 14:45O. Mezera45911101142L. Veigl48119125113
LSep 22 · 16:19O. Mezera51814711112L. Veigl551112118133
WSep 22 · 15:15O. Mezera47681111113L. Veigl4511117972
WJul 30 · 06:45O. Mezera51111577113L. Veigl49813111162
LJul 29 · 14:15O. Mezera35117891L. Veigl4181111113
LJul 22 · 15:15O. Mezera348115101L. Veigl4011611123
LJul 9 · 14:15O. Mezera391268131L. Veigl47101111153
LJul 8 · 14:15O. Mezera42311116112L. Veigl50119611133
WJul 7 · 16:14O. Mezera481211311113L. Veigl4714911582
O. Mezera10
WOct 3 · 08:13M. Makara1.61101271182O. Mezera2.201210117113LOct 3 · 07:15J. Krames Sr1.33111111123O. Mezera3.251328101LOct 3 · 05:45O. Mezera2.2081181192M. Makara1.61114114113LOct 2 · 16:15T. Liska1.581111133O. Mezera2.2547110LOct 2 · 15:15M. Vyskocil1.671911113O. Mezera2.1017680WOct 2 · 14:45O. Mezera2.501181110113T. Liska1.5081131272LOct 2 · 13:45O. Mezera2.20651171M. Makara1.6111119113LOct 1 · 16:13J. Krames Sr1.4411119113O. Mezera2.63931161WOct 1 · 15:15O. Mezera4.00411148113J. Krames Sr1.22118121192LOct 1 · 14:15O. Mezera2.75121550L. Rulc1.401417113
L. Veigl10
WOct 3 · 07:45M. Makara2.0087100L. Veigl1.731111123LOct 3 · 05:15J. Krames Sr1.611191114113L. Veigl2.2081121662WSep 30 · 12:14M. Stibor1.83141211672L. Veigl1.831610511113LSep 30 · 11:15L. Veigl2.00981111102V. Burylov1.73111196123LSep 30 · 10:15L. Veigl2.0058150L. Dobias1.731111173WSep 30 · 09:15L. Veigl2.001111113M. Stibor1.739960WSep 29 · 12:48L. Veigl2.20101111113M. Stibor1.61125771LSep 29 · 11:45M. Stibor1.73114116113L. Veigl2.0061131152WSep 29 · 10:45M. Myler2.259711111L. Veigl1.5711117133WSep 29 · 09:15J. Rochowanski1.8081151172L. Veigl1.91118119113
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