TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ondrej Karpisek vs Karel Jirousek 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116411119911311
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:11 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Karpisek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Karpisek above · Karel Jirousek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 86 set 5, 3-11 · our read held Ondrej Karpisek at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:1154.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Karpisek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Karpisek 1402 vs Jirousek 1460
Jirousek
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpisek 20% vs Jirousek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpisek 30% vs Jirousek 50%
Jirousek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpisek -4 · Jirousek -2
Karpisek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Karpisek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jirousek form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpisek 1.666 / Jirousek 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Karpisek)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240334
Karpisek1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 25 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it67% 16 of 24
Jirousek2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 27) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 38 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back25% 12 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpisekJirousekBasisWin rate · lifetime212 / 454 vs 223 / 43646.7%51.2%212 / 454 vs 223 / 436Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.240.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KarpisekKarpisek 1.67/Jirousek 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Karpisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jirousek won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
O. Karpisek10
WOct 4 · 19:30O. Karpisek1.8311711113J. Snr1.83711681LOct 4 · 17:30O. Karpisek2.25101121192F. Kubos1.57128118113LOct 1 · 20:29O. Karpisek2.50715461S. Kalensky1.50111311113LOct 1 · 20:00T. Bertho1.8311117113O. Karpisek1.83721181LOct 1 · 19:00S. Kalensky1.5771113123O. Karpisek2.2511911101WOct 1 · 17:30V. Toman2.751111111262O. Karpisek1.40913714113LSep 30 · 20:58M. Vana1.7381113113O. Karpisek2.001191181WSep 30 · 19:30F. Schmidtmayer2.2571281192O. Karpisek1.571110118113WSep 30 · 19:00O. Karpisek2.201111126113M. Vana1.6179141182LSep 30 · 18:00O. Karpisek1.449880M. Drabek2.631111113
K. Jirousek10
LOct 4 · 20:00K. Jirousek2.501171051F. Kubos1.5041112113WOct 4 · 18:00J. Snr1.6791191182K. Jirousek2.10119119113LSep 27 · 12:18J. Mejzlik2.00111197123K. Jirousek1.73771111102LSep 27 · 11:15K. Jirousek1.80811141262J. Hanacek1.911141214113WSep 27 · 10:15K. Jirousek1.8313711113J. Mejzlik1.831111781LSep 27 · 09:15K. Jirousek2.6381191152L. Hendrych1.44119115113LSep 25 · 20:29K. Jirousek1.28117111042J. Pina3.50711712113WSep 25 · 19:30J. Pina2.5041140K. Jirousek1.501113113WSep 25 · 19:00K. Jirousek1.7311513113J. Seeman2.008111191LSep 25 · 18:00K. Jirousek1.80781141J. Hanacek1.9111117113
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