TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Obishchenko vs Yevhenii Holoborodko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111171012611––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:22 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeAndrii Obishchenko to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrii Obishchenko above · Yevhenii Holoborodko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 73 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Andrii Obishchenko at 56.5%
73 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Obishchenko 3–3 Yevhenii Holoborodko Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:2256.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Obishchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Obishchenko 1681 vs Holoborodko 1510
Obishchenko
Wrong
both rated, 171 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Obishchenko 80% vs Holoborodko 40%
Obishchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Obishchenko 80% vs Holoborodko 40%
Obishchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Obishchenko +4 · Holoborodko -1
Obishchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Obishchenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Obishchenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsObishchenko 1.727 / Holoborodko 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Obishchenko)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240059
Obishchenko1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 20 days ago (Sep 14) · back after a break
Won last 4
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite66% won 35 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it87% 27 of 31
Holoborodko2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 72 of 193
Down 0–1, comes back24% 28 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeObishchenko3wins
AwayHoloborodko3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeObishchenko33.3%1 of 3
AwayHoloborodko33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Obishchenko3Holoborodko3n = 6split evenly
S2Obishchenko4Holoborodko2n = 6Obishchenko took 4 of 6
S3Obishchenko3Holoborodko3n = 6split evenly
S4Obishchenko2Holoborodko3n = 5Holoborodko took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricObishchenkoHoloborodkoO − HBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match38.237.7+0.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricObishchenkoHoloborodkoBasisWin rate · lifetime74 / 141 vs 347 / 67852.5%51.2%74 / 141 vs 347 / 678Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ObishchenkoObishchenko 1.73/Holoborodko 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Obishchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Holoborodko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 14 · 09:05A. Obishchenko361112133Y. Holoborodko27610110
WAug 20 · 06:00A. Obishchenko48711811113Y. Holoborodko4511911772
LAug 14 · 07:35A. Obishchenko3991111532Y. Holoborodko51119911113
LJul 12 · 04:30A. Obishchenko33117691Y. Holoborodko3741111113
LJan 2 · 06:35A. Obishchenko32116961Y. Holoborodko4181111113
WDec 21 · 12:35A. Obishchenko4181111113Y. Holoborodko25116261
A. Obishchenko10
WOct 4 · 07:30A. Obishchenko1.677111411113O. Varlamov2.10119121372LOct 4 · 05:58A. Obishchenko2.6396110A. Droshchynskyi1.441111133WSep 14 · 11:05Y. Volkov1.8384111352A. Obishchenko1.831111511113WSep 14 · 10:05A. Obishchenko1.251114113A. Troyan3.7581250WSep 14 · 09:05A. Obishchenko1.831112133Y. Holoborodko1.83610110WSep 14 · 07:35A. Obishchenko1.6111117113V. Ishchuk2.20351181LSep 14 · 05:35A. Obishchenko1.4011881152O. Karpenko2.75111117113WSep 8 · 11:05O. Osadchyi2.389480A. Obishchenko1.531111113WSep 8 · 10:05A. Obishchenko1.251111113A. Troyan3.755960LSep 8 · 09:05A. Obishchenko1.9177100Y. Kovshun1.801111123
Y. Holoborodko10
WOct 4 · 06:30O. Varlamov1.8021161142Y. Holoborodko1.91119119113LOct 3 · 17:40A. Zozulia1.6161111103Y. Holoborodko2.20116941WOct 3 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.753111110113O. Kuzyshyn1.4011891292LOct 3 · 14:10A. Droshchynskyi1.3091411113Y. Holoborodko3.401112941WOct 3 · 12:10Y. Skorobahatyi1.61951191Y. Holoborodko2.2011116113LOct 3 · 11:10R. Pomin1.611111113Y. Holoborodko2.205890LOct 1 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko2.006880M. Tiutiunnyk1.731111113WOct 1 · 15:40V. Merzlikin1.80711119102Y. Holoborodko1.91113711123LOct 1 · 13:40O. Zhyrnov1.4011114113Y. Holoborodko2.75831191LSep 14 · 09:05A. Obishchenko1.831112133Y. Holoborodko1.83610110
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