TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Adam Kral vs Jakub Dvorak 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111181181210––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:19 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeJakub Dvorak to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Kral above · Jakub Dvorak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 79 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Jakub Dvorak at 56.6%
79 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kral 22–29 Jakub Dvorak Adam Kral has won 22 of their 51 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:1956.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Dvorak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
22-29 in 51
Dvorak
Wrong
gap of 7 in 51, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kral 1476 vs Dvorak 1495
Dvorak
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kral 40% vs Dvorak 60%
Dvorak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kral 30% vs Dvorak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kral -2 · Dvorak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Dvorak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKral 2.10 / Dvorak 1.666
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Dvorak)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13232004
Kral2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 88 of 197
Down 0–1, comes back27% 27 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back14% 7 of 52
Dvorak1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 27 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it78% 21 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKral4wins
AwayDvorak6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDvorak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKral60%3 of 5
AwayDvorak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kral5Dvorak5n = 10split evenly
S2Kral3Dvorak7n = 10Dvorak took 7 of 10
S3Kral6Dvorak4n = 10Kral took 6 of 10
S4Kral3Dvorak7n = 10Dvorak took 7 of 10
S5Kral2Dvorak1n = 3Kral took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKralDvorakK − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.042.7−2.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKralDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime410 / 784 vs 167 / 34252.3%48.8%410 / 784 vs 167 / 342Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakKral 2.10/Dvorak 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 09:25A. Kral46116117113J. Dvorak4361161192
LAug 29 · 09:25A. Kral4410111491J. Dvorak48121312113
WAug 13 · 15:20A. Kral48912511113J. Dvorak44111011662
WAug 3 · 16:20A. Kral4817911113J. Dvorak411511781
LAug 2 · 16:50A. Kral331110571J. Dvorak4391211113
WJul 19 · 07:20A. Kral3911116113J. Dvorak33861181
LMay 31 · 08:55A. Kral346711101J. Dvorak4011116123
LMay 30 · 11:25A. Kral321141161J. Dvorak4491113113
LMay 23 · 10:30A. Kral4471113672J. Dvorak491151111113
LMay 23 · 08:25A. Kral32941181J. Dvorak4211119113
A. Kral10
LOct 2 · 16:20A. Kral2.255111081J. Melichar1.5711712113LOct 2 · 14:20A. Kral2.63912841D. Sykora1.44111011113LSep 29 · 10:30M. Filipek1.601312113A. Kral2.20111090WSep 29 · 09:25F. Marat1.838740A. Kral1.831111113LSep 29 · 08:25A. Kral2.208860M. Filipek1.611111113WSep 29 · 06:55J. Srnka2.501161281A. Kral1.5031114113LSep 27 · 09:59A. Kral1.7356120Z. Zahradka2.001111143WSep 27 · 09:25Z. Zahradka1.838411101A. Kral1.8311118123LSep 27 · 08:25A. Kral1.9191111772R. Jamrich1.80116711113LSep 27 · 06:55J. Kulveit1.805111611113A. Kral1.91115141342
J. Dvorak10
LOct 2 · 14:50J. Melichar2.1091111113J. Dvorak1.67119681WSep 21 · 18:00J. Dvorak1.91113114113M. Dvorak1.8091161172LSep 21 · 16:50J. Dvorak1.804119101M. Dvorak1.9111511123WSep 21 · 15:20J. Cerny1.83311641J. Dvorak1.8311211113WSep 21 · 14:50D. Tichy1.8310970J. Dvorak1.831211113LSep 19 · 10:04J. Dvorak1.619850R. Jamrich2.201111113LSep 19 · 09:25J. Dvorak1.7361161192A. Kral2.00116117113LSep 19 · 07:55J. Kulveit1.6714117113J. Dvorak2.101291151WSep 19 · 07:25R. Jamrich2.0041111892J. Dvorak1.73114711113LSep 18 · 18:30J. Dvorak1.65119181182D. Tichy2.109111613113
Upcoming Matches
A. Kral
Nothing scheduled
J. Dvorak
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