TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Adam Kral vs Jiri Melichar 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111171012811––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:19 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeJiri Melichar to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Kral above · Jiri Melichar below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 75 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Jiri Melichar at 58.9%
75 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kral 3–1 Jiri Melichar Jiri Melichar has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:1958.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Melichar
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Kral
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kral 1488 vs Melichar 1518
Melichar
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kral 40% vs Melichar 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kral 40% vs Melichar 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kral +1 · Melichar +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Melichar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melichar form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKral 2.25 / Melichar 1.571
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Melichar)-4.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13232943
Kral2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 88 of 197
Down 0–1, comes back27% 27 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back14% 7 of 52
Melichar1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 18 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it71% 10 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKral3wins
AwayMelichar1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderKral leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKral75%3 of 4
AwayMelicharn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kral4Melichar0n = 4Kral took 4 of 4
S2Kral1Melichar3n = 4Melichar took 3 of 4
S3Kral1Melichar3n = 4Melichar took 3 of 4
S4Kral2Melichar2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKralMelicharK − MBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match41.541.8−0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKralMelicharBasisWin rate · lifetime411 / 785 vs 42 / 7452.4%56.8%411 / 785 vs 42 / 74Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MelicharKral 2.25/Melichar 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Melichar · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Melichar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 13 · 14:20A. Kral311128101J. Melichar4061111123
WJun 29 · 17:50A. Kral45118411113J. Melichar4291111742
WJun 29 · 15:20A. Kral531311108113J. Melichar50118121182
WJun 25 · 16:50A. Kral3711411113J. Melichar35911871
A. Kral10
WOct 2 · 15:20A. Kral2.1081111123J. Dvorak1.671188101LOct 2 · 14:20A. Kral2.63912841D. Sykora1.44111011113LSep 29 · 10:30M. Filipek1.601312113A. Kral2.20111090WSep 29 · 09:25F. Marat1.838740A. Kral1.831111113LSep 29 · 08:25A. Kral2.208860M. Filipek1.611111113WSep 29 · 06:55J. Srnka2.501161281A. Kral1.5031114113LSep 27 · 09:59A. Kral1.7356120Z. Zahradka2.001111143WSep 27 · 09:25Z. Zahradka1.838411101A. Kral1.8311118123LSep 27 · 08:25A. Kral1.9191111772R. Jamrich1.80116711113LSep 27 · 06:55J. Kulveit1.805111611113A. Kral1.91115141342
J. Melichar10
WOct 2 · 15:50D. Sykora1.91781161J. Melichar1.8011115113WOct 2 · 14:50J. Melichar2.1091111113J. Dvorak1.67119681LSep 28 · 18:40J. Kulveit1.8311114113J. Melichar1.83591161LSep 28 · 16:55O. Varecka2.00411117113J. Melichar1.7311821172LSep 28 · 16:25J. Kulveit2.1011119113J. Melichar1.67651181WSep 28 · 15:25J. Melichar1.441212113R. Jamrich2.63101080LSep 6 · 18:03J. Melichar1.44111011682Z. Zahradka2.63712811113WSep 6 · 17:25J. Melichar1.44117117113Z. Zahradka2.6381151192LSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780WSep 6 · 15:25R. Jamrich3.00118751J. Melichar1.3691111113
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