TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Anna Lapa vs Margarita Gordeets 3-2 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
113611114911118
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:34 and never touched: 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeMargarita Gordeets to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnna Lapa above · Margarita Gordeets below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 85 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Margarita Gordeets at 58.6%
85 points played in total.
H2H Anna Lapa 41–50 Margarita Gordeets Anna Lapa has won 41 of their 91 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:3458.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Gordeets
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
41-50 in 91
Gordeets
Wrong
gap of 9 in 91, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lapa 1451 vs Gordeets 1677
Gordeets
Wrong
both rated, 226 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lapa 40% vs Gordeets 80%
Gordeets
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lapa 30% vs Gordeets 70%
Gordeets
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lapa +1 · Gordeets +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Gordeets) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gordeets form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLapa 2.10 / Gordeets 1.666
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Gordeets)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup Women · #13230423
Lapa2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 26)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 37 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back15% 10 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 41
Gordeets1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 27)
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 108 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it96% 63 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it84% 83 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLapa6wins
AwayGordeets4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLapa leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLapa100%6 of 6
AwayGordeets100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lapa6Gordeets4n = 10Lapa took 6 of 10
S2Lapa4Gordeets6n = 10Gordeets took 6 of 10
S3Lapa6Gordeets4n = 10Lapa took 6 of 10
S4Lapa2Gordeets2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricLapaGordeetsL − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.733.8+0.9per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLapaGordeetsBasisWin rate · lifetime231 / 458 vs 349 / 58850.4%59.4%231 / 458 vs 349 / 588Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GordeetsLapa 2.10/Gordeets 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.6%
Gordeets · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lapa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 15:05A. Lapa351071171M. Gordeets4212118113
WSep 4 · 13:05A. Lapa4111611133M. Gordeets368116111
WAug 20 · 17:35A. Lapa331111113M. Gordeets249870
LAug 14 · 17:35A. Lapa2283110M. Gordeets351111133
WAug 2 · 17:35A. Lapa541211119113M. Gordeets45101351162
WJul 31 · 15:05A. Lapa43111110113M. Gordeets33661291
LJul 24 · 17:35A. Lapa2459100M. Gordeets341111123
WJul 19 · 17:35A. Lapa371511113M. Gordeets3013980
WJun 27 · 14:05A. Lapa331111113M. Gordeets258890
LJun 26 · 14:05A. Lapa2510870M. Gordeets341211113
A. Lapa10
WSep 26 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.30116871A. Lapa3.4051111113LSep 26 · 17:35A. Lapa3.25111115482O. Ivchenko1.338131311113WSep 26 · 16:35A. Lapa1.401112113K. Tymchenko2.7581080LSep 26 · 15:05A. Lapa2.201071171M. Gordeets1.6112118113LSep 26 · 13:05A. Lapa3.40811881V. Shevchuk1.3011311113LSep 19 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.361111113A. Lapa3.008820LSep 19 · 17:35A. Lapa2.75113741O. Ivchenko1.4071111113LSep 19 · 16:35A. Lapa3.4081112872V. Shevchuk1.301181011113LSep 19 · 15:05A. Lapa2.509750A. Volgina1.501111113WSep 19 · 13:05A. Lapa1.3312311113O. Bondareva3.251011741
M. Gordeets10
LOct 2 · 14:35M. Gordeets1.2871711652A. Gorchakova3.501115611113WSep 27 · 19:35V. Shevchuk2.00711981M. Gordeets1.7311911113WSep 27 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.611111133O. Ivchenko2.2075110LSep 27 · 16:05K. Tymchenko2.501411113M. Gordeets1.5012780WSep 27 · 14:05A. Gorchakova3.50911741M. Gordeets1.281171163WSep 27 · 13:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.7596120M. Gordeets1.251111143WSep 26 · 19:05M. Gordeets1.501111113K. Tymchenko2.506680WSep 26 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.8011911982M. Gordeets1.91311911113LSep 26 · 16:05M. Gordeets1.73117761V. Shevchuk2.0081111113WSep 26 · 15:05A. Lapa2.201071171M. Gordeets1.6112118113
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