TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yehor Riadynskyi vs Oleksandr Seliuchenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116117311911811
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:59 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Seliuchenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingYehor Riadynskyi above · Oleksandr Seliuchenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 88 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Oleksandr Seliuchenko at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Yehor Riadynskyi 12–15 Oleksandr Seliuchenko Yehor Riadynskyi has won 12 of their 27 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5954.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Seliuchenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-15 in 27
Seliuchenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Riadynskyi 1679 vs Seliuchenko 1609
Riadynskyi
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Riadynskyi 60% vs Seliuchenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Riadynskyi 50% vs Seliuchenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Riadynskyi +1 · Seliuchenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Seliuchenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRiadynskyi 2.00 / Seliuchenko 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Seliuchenko)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223941
Riadynskyi2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 19 days ago (Sep 12) · back after a break
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 12 of 40
Down 0–1, comes back14% 3 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Seliuchenko1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 26)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 77 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it74% 58 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRiadynskyi5wins
AwaySeliuchenko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRiadynskyi60%3 of 5
AwaySeliuchenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Riadynskyi5Seliuchenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Riadynskyi4Seliuchenko6n = 10Seliuchenko took 6 of 10
S3Riadynskyi4Seliuchenko6n = 10Seliuchenko took 6 of 10
S4Riadynskyi4Seliuchenko2n = 6Riadynskyi took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricRiadynskyiSeliuchenkoR − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.638.2−0.6per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRiadynskyiSeliuchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime398 / 702 vs 185 / 32356.7%57.3%398 / 702 vs 185 / 323Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SeliuchenkoRiadynskyi 2.00/Seliuchenko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Seliuchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Seliuchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 3 · 14:38Y. Riadynskyi381110891O. Seliuchenko4391211113
LJun 26 · 07:50Y. Riadynskyi2571440O. Seliuchenko381116113
LJun 22 · 19:50Y. Riadynskyi257990O. Seliuchenko331111113
WJun 11 · 16:50Y. Riadynskyi517111111113O. Seliuchenko5011139892
WMay 30 · 12:20Y. Riadynskyi4381113113O. Seliuchenko401191191
WMay 29 · 20:20Y. Riadynskyi4211119113O. Seliuchenko35691191
LMay 25 · 21:20Y. Riadynskyi48116119112O. Seliuchenko44311611133
WMay 21 · 21:20Y. Riadynskyi331111113O. Seliuchenko246990
LMay 18 · 19:20Y. Riadynskyi31111190O. Seliuchenko371313113
WMay 15 · 07:50Y. Riadynskyi4011126113O. Seliuchenko389101181
Y. Riadynskyi10
WOct 1 · 13:30Y. Riadynskyi1.671211113O. Strutinskiy2.1010970WSep 12 · 12:50Y. Riadynskyi1.3011911113O. Zhyrnov3.40811891LSep 12 · 10:50M. Mrykh1.8311117103Y. Riadynskyi1.83881191WSep 12 · 08:50A. Zozulia2.637790Y. Riadynskyi1.441111113WSep 12 · 07:50Y. Riadynskyi1.67611119113O. Strutinskiy2.1011961162LSep 12 · 06:50V. Savoliuk2.1011117123Y. Riadynskyi1.673411101LAug 28 · 12:20Y. Riadynskyi1.61131161162O. Strutinskiy2.201151113113LAug 28 · 10:20V. Savoliuk2.1011117113Y. Riadynskyi1.67881191WAug 28 · 09:20Y. Riadynskyi2.1091111113A. Zozulia1.67112691WAug 28 · 08:20A. Derevianko2.631258101Y. Riadynskyi1.44101111123
O. Seliuchenko10
LOct 1 · 14:00V. Savoliuk1.671181311143O. Seliuchenko2.10311155122WSep 26 · 11:50O. Seliuchenko1.781111113M. Mrykh1.924490LSep 26 · 10:20O. Seliuchenko1.53761181A. Derevianko2.3811117113LSep 26 · 08:50O. Seliuchenko1.8381111752M. Deineha1.83118611113WSep 26 · 07:20O. Seliuchenko2.20711911113V. Savoliuk1.6111711482WSep 26 · 05:50O. Seliuchenko1.40611129113O. Zhyrnov2.75116101152WSep 24 · 18:30O. Strutinskiy2.7511381152O. Seliuchenko1.40711116113LSep 24 · 17:30V. Savoliuk1.67911117113O. Seliuchenko2.1011881182LSep 24 · 16:00M. Mrykh2.10813813113O. Seliuchenko1.671111111182WSep 24 · 14:00O. Zhyrnov2.7514880O. Seliuchenko1.401611113
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