TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Leonenko vs Eduard Populovskyi 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
211511811––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:00 and never touched: 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Leonenko to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Oleksandr Leonenko @ 1.80 · Lost
How it is goingOleksandr Leonenko above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 48 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Oleksandr Leonenko at 54.7%
48 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Leonenko 5–4 Eduard Populovskyi Eduard Populovskyi has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 06:0054.7%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 0.9pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Leonenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leonenko 1508 vs Populovskyi 1390
Leonenko
Wrong
both rated, 119 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonenko 20% vs Populovskyi 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonenko 40% vs Populovskyi 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonenko +1 · Populovskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Leonenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonenko 1.80 / Populovskyi 1.909
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Leonenko)-0.9pp
Setka Cup · #13223642
Leonenko1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 88 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it77% 48 of 62
Populovskyi1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 49 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back23% 20 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeLeonenko5wins
AwayPopulovskyi4wins
2 of 9 to a deciderLeonenko leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLeonenko80%4 of 5
AwayPopulovskyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leonenko5Populovskyi4n = 9Leonenko took 5 of 9
S2Leonenko5Populovskyi4n = 9Leonenko took 5 of 9
S3Leonenko2Populovskyi7n = 9Populovskyi took 7 of 9
S4Leonenko4Populovskyi4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricLeonenkoPopulovskyiL − PBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match37.138.3−1.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonenkoPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime420 / 821 vs 337 / 69551.2%48.5%420 / 821 vs 337 / 695Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LeonenkoLeonenko 1.80/Populovskyi 1.91
Miss
What we said
54.7%
Leonenko · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Leonenko @ 1.80 · Lost
What happened
0–3
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 24 · 09:05O. Leonenko4011117113E. Populovskyi30841171
WSep 21 · 06:20O. Leonenko4071111113E. Populovskyi32115881
LSep 11 · 18:30O. Leonenko33116971E. Populovskyi4291111113
WAug 27 · 09:20O. Leonenko4111118113E. Populovskyi30591151
LMay 21 · 08:20O. Leonenko196760E. Populovskyi331111113
WMay 20 · 21:50O. Leonenko45111166113E. Populovskyi4688111182
LJan 9 · 10:35O. Leonenko32611781E. Populovskyi4111811113
LDec 26 · 07:05O. Leonenko36861481E. Populovskyi45111112113
WDec 5 · 09:00O. Leonenko48116711133E. Populovskyi46611117112
O. Leonenko10
WOct 1 · 06:05O. Leonenko2.001111113O. Osadchyi1.735890LSep 29 · 09:00O. Leonenko6.008550Y. Volkov1.111111113LSep 29 · 08:00O. Leonenko2.2554111192Y. Kovshun1.57111158113LSep 29 · 06:30O. Leonenko2.209770D. Khairov1.611111113LSep 29 · 05:30O. Leonenko1.83781151A. Troyan1.8311119113WSep 24 · 11:05A. Kurtenko1.67811111292O. Leonenko2.10116414113WSep 24 · 10:05O. Leonenko1.83131485113A. Martyniuk1.831112111172WSep 24 · 09:05O. Leonenko2.0011117113E. Populovskyi1.73841171LSep 24 · 07:35O. Leonenko3.7581311592O. Lipeiko1.251111811113LSep 24 · 05:35O. Leonenko2.20811119122S. Solomko1.61115711143
E. Populovskyi10
WOct 1 · 05:35A. Martyniuk1.4011551172E. Populovskyi2.75911117113LSep 30 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.301111113E. Populovskyi3.408870LSep 30 · 09:30E. Populovskyi1.80118101152A. Kovalenko1.91611124113LSep 30 · 08:30E. Populovskyi2.25111131252O. Volynets1.57861114113LSep 30 · 07:00E. Populovskyi2.209770O. Shyshman1.611111113LSep 30 · 05:00E. Populovskyi3.4077100S. Solomko1.301111123WSep 24 · 11:35O. Lipeiko1.50871381E. Populovskyi2.50111111113LSep 24 · 10:35S. Solomko1.3011611113E. Populovskyi3.40511571LSep 24 · 09:05O. Leonenko2.0011117113E. Populovskyi1.73841171WSep 24 · 07:05A. Martyniuk1.40117101182E. Populovskyi2.75811128113
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