TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Petr Osvald vs Pavel Chovanec 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1121198111113116
Pavel Chovanec
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:58 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timePavel Chovanec to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Osvald above · Pavel Chovanec below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 93 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Pavel Chovanec at 57.7%
93 points played in total.
H2H Petr Osvald 1–2 Pavel Chovanec Petr Osvald has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5857.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Chovanec
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osvald 1567 vs Chovanec 1471
Osvald
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osvald 100% vs Chovanec 20%
Osvald
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osvald 70% vs Chovanec 40%
Osvald
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Osvald +7 · Chovanec -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Chovanec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chovanec form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsvald 2.20 / Chovanec 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Chovanec)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222325
Osvald2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog42% won 28 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back22% 8 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back17% 3 of 18
Chovanec1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite44% won 8 of 18
Up 2–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it67% 6 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeOsvald1wins
AwayChovanec2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderChovanec leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osvald2Chovanec1n = 3Osvald took 2 of 3
S2Osvald1Chovanec2n = 3Chovanec took 2 of 3
S3Osvald1Chovanec2n = 3Chovanec took 2 of 3
S4Osvald1Chovanec2n = 3Chovanec took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricOsvaldChovanecO − CBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match43.344.7−1.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsvaldChovanecBasisWin rate · lifetime118 / 236 vs 20 / 5150%39.2%118 / 236 vs 20 / 51Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChovanecOsvald 2.20/Chovanec 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Chovanec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Osvald won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 1 · 07:00P. Osvald521111811113P. Chovanec4129111362
LSep 7 · 11:00P. Osvald371188101P. Chovanec4391111123
LApr 20 · 06:00P. Osvald4173111192P. Chovanec50111198113
P. Osvald10
WOct 1 · 06:00D. Machander1.8361171162P. Osvald1.83119119113WSep 27 · 13:30P. Osvald1.3511913133M. Kowolowski2.9071111111WSep 27 · 12:00P. Osvald1.8012711113M. Blejchar1.911011251WSep 27 · 11:30M. Kowolowski2.5010820P. Osvald1.501211113WSep 27 · 10:00P. Osvald1.83111211113P. Bajtek1.83814561WSep 24 · 08:58P. Osvald1.731111113T. Milota2.006910WSep 24 · 08:30P. Osvald2.501111123T. Milota1.5074100LSep 24 · 07:00P. Osvald2.63111070M. Koral1.441312113LSep 24 · 06:00M. Blejchar2.00911117113P. Osvald1.7311561172LSep 19 · 09:30P. Osvald1.8011511732P. Hanel1.90611611113
P. Chovanec10
LOct 1 · 08:00D. Machander1.5781111113P. Chovanec2.25118631LOct 1 · 06:30P. Chovanec1.671171181P. Smetka2.1013117113LSep 13 · 09:08P. Chovanec2.105410M. Blejchar1.661111113LSep 13 · 08:00P. Chovanec1.6111115672O. Hradil2.20991111113LSep 13 · 07:30A. Rinka1.801111113P. Chovanec1.918360WSep 13 · 06:00P. Chovanec1.6171211113M. Blejchar2.201110741WSep 7 · 13:30O. Hradil1.8311117592P. Chovanec1.83951111113LSep 7 · 12:00O. Hradil2.0014112123P. Chovanec1.7312511101WSep 7 · 11:00P. Osvald2.201188101P. Chovanec1.6191111123WSep 7 · 10:30P. Chovanec1.571111113M. Blejchar2.259330
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