TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Stusek vs Frantisek Chaloupka 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118118511118––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:06 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Chaloupka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Stusek above · Frantisek Chaloupka below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Frantisek Chaloupka at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H David Stusek 4–6 Frantisek Chaloupka David Stusek has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:0654.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Chaloupka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Chaloupka
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stusek 1596 vs Chaloupka 1679
Chaloupka
Wrong
both rated, 83 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stusek 40% vs Chaloupka 60%
Chaloupka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stusek 40% vs Chaloupka 60%
Chaloupka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stusek -2 · Chaloupka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Chaloupka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stusek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStusek 1.833 / Chaloupka 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chaloupka)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13221089
Stusek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Chaloupka1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStusek4wins
AwayChaloupka6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderChaloupka leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStusek66.7%2 of 3
AwayChaloupka71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stusek3Chaloupka7n = 10Chaloupka took 7 of 10
S2Stusek6Chaloupka4n = 10Stusek took 6 of 10
S3Stusek5Chaloupka5n = 10split evenly
S4Stusek2Chaloupka5n = 7Chaloupka took 5 of 7
S5Stusek3Chaloupka3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStusekChaloupkaS − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.944.3−3.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStusekChaloupkaBasisWin rate · lifetime100 / 202 vs 290 / 55249.5%52.5%100 / 202 vs 290 / 552Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChaloupkaStusek 1.83/Chaloupka 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chaloupka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stusek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 08:10D. Stusek55913119133F. Chaloupka511111711112
LAug 26 · 17:03D. Stusek218760F. Chaloupka331111113
LAug 26 · 14:15D. Stusek54781711112F. Chaloupka591111159133
LAug 12 · 14:40D. Stusek43111111732F. Chaloupka51138811113
LJun 21 · 08:45D. Stusek2571080F. Chaloupka341112113
WJun 21 · 05:45D. Stusek56201186113F. Chaloupka53186111172
WJun 18 · 15:10D. Stusek331111113F. Chaloupka247980
WFeb 27 · 16:45D. Stusek50912711113F. Chaloupka48111011972
LFeb 10 · 15:40D. Stusek4391111752F. Chaloupka49118811113
LJan 4 · 08:10D. Stusek29116751F. Chaloupka4181111113
D. Stusek10
LSep 30 · 13:45B. Moravec1.8391111123D. Stusek1.831147101LSep 27 · 09:10A. Veliiev2.001711113D. Stusek1.7315360WSep 27 · 07:40J. Skalicky2.1081111872D. Stusek1.67113611113WSep 27 · 07:10A. Kanak1.73811115132D. Stusek2.00116711153LSep 27 · 06:10D. Stusek1.611191081A. Veliiev2.2091112113LSep 24 · 17:10D. Stusek1.736117121B. Moravec2.0011211143WSep 24 · 16:10D. Stusek1.5711111113K. Kleprlik2.25116691WSep 24 · 14:40B. Moravec1.50541161D. Stusek2.5011119113LSep 24 · 14:10J. Pribyl1.44118118123D. Stusek2.63811811102LSep 22 · 21:08J. Travnicek1.83971111143D. Stusek1.83111195122
F. Chaloupka10
LSep 30 · 14:15F. Chaloupka1.837980J. Pribyl1.831111113WSep 28 · 16:45F. Chaloupka1.50911811113L. Kantor2.5011811472WSep 28 · 15:45F. Chaloupka1.837181111133B. Mrowetz1.83112058112LSep 28 · 14:45F. Chaloupka1.738111081J. Krupnik2.0011612113WSep 28 · 13:45F. Chaloupka1.5011611113L. Kantor2.50611991LSep 27 · 17:09F. Chaloupka1.731271251L. Slavik2.00101114113WSep 27 · 15:40J. Skvrna1.6174110F. Chaloupka2.201111133WSep 27 · 15:10L. Slavik2.251181111102F. Chaloupka1.57131197123LSep 27 · 14:10F. Chaloupka1.57871161D. Velky Jr2.2511117113WSep 27 · 13:09J. Travnicek2.001165121F. Chaloupka1.7371111143
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