TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Anton Veliiev vs David Stusek 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1715113116––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAnton Veliiev to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnton Veliiev above · David Stusek below
Set 1 · 17-15
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 63 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Anton Veliiev at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Anton Veliiev 2–0 David Stusek David Stusek has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Veliiev beat Stusek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:35What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stusek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Veliiev 1701 vs Stusek 1614
Veliiev
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Veliiev 80% vs Stusek 60%
Veliiev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Veliiev 50% vs Stusek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Veliiev +3 · Stusek +2
Veliiev
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stusek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Veliiev form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVeliiev 2.00 / Stusek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Veliiev)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13205466
Veliiev2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 5 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back18% 2 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Stusek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 31 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeVeliiev2wins
AwayStusek0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderVeliiev leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricVeliievStusekV − SBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match48.042.5+5.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeliievStusekBasisWin rate · lifetime138 / 234 vs 100 / 20059%50%138 / 234 vs 100 / 200Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.440.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StusekVeliiev 2.00/Stusek 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Veliiev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 27 · 06:10A. Veliiev4391112113D. Stusek381191081
WMar 31 · 19:15A. Veliiev531281111113D. Stusek4714119672
A. Veliiev10
WSep 27 · 08:10A. Veliiev2.001411113A. Kanak1.7312480WSep 27 · 06:40J. Skalicky1.53951171A. Veliiev2.3811119113WSep 27 · 06:10D. Stusek1.611191081A. Veliiev2.2091112113LSep 26 · 08:44A. Veliiev1.834870J. Skalicky1.831111113WSep 26 · 07:45J. Skalicky1.67119111172A. Veliiev2.10131159113LSep 26 · 07:15J. Travnicek1.7311811113A. Veliiev2.00911881LSep 26 · 06:15A. Veliiev2.00911771D. Jr1.7311811113LSep 20 · 13:05O. Stehlik1.671111113A. Veliiev2.103960LSep 20 · 12:35A. Veliiev1.807890J. Ruzicka1.911111113WSep 20 · 11:05O. Stehlik2.0013112672A. Veliiev1.731161111113
D. Stusek10
WSep 27 · 07:40J. Skalicky2.1081111872D. Stusek1.67113611113WSep 27 · 07:10A. Kanak1.73811115132D. Stusek2.00116711153LSep 27 · 06:10D. Stusek1.611191081A. Veliiev2.2091112113LSep 24 · 17:10D. Stusek1.736117121B. Moravec2.0011211143WSep 24 · 16:10D. Stusek1.5711111113K. Kleprlik2.25116691WSep 24 · 14:40B. Moravec1.50541161D. Stusek2.5011119113LSep 24 · 14:10J. Pribyl1.44118118123D. Stusek2.63811811102LSep 22 · 21:08J. Travnicek1.83971111143D. Stusek1.83111195122LSep 22 · 19:45D. Stusek1.8081140J. Travnicek1.911113113WSep 22 · 18:45D. Stusek1.8012111112113T. Fojtik1.9114341482
Upcoming Matches
A. Veliiev
D. Stusek
Nothing scheduled
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