TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Petr Provaznik vs Libor Smazik 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611118511611––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:55 and never touched: 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeLibor Smazik to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Provaznik above · Libor Smazik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 69 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Libor Smazik at 61.9%
69 points played in total.
H2H Petr Provaznik 0–3 Libor Smazik Petr Provaznik has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:5561.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 9.5pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Smazik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Smazik
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Provaznik 1532 vs Smazik 1458
Provaznik
Wrong
both rated, 74 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Provaznik 40% vs Smazik 20%
Provaznik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Provaznik 40% vs Smazik 20%
Provaznik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Provaznik -2 · Smazik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Smazik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smazik form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 2.75 / Smazik 1.40
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Smazik)-9.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219075
Provaznik2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 25)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 32 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back33% 13 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Smazik1.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 25)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite46% won 45 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it67% 35 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeProvaznik0wins
AwaySmazik3wins
1 of 3 to a deciderSmazik leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Provaznik1Smazik2n = 3Smazik took 2 of 3
S2Provaznik1Smazik2n = 3Smazik took 2 of 3
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricProvaznikSmazikP − SBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match29.045.0−16.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikSmazikBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 472 vs 206 / 41447.9%49.8%226 / 472 vs 206 / 414Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SmazikProvaznik 2.75/Smazik 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.9%
Smazik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Smazik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LMay 8 · 13:15P. Provaznik44121561102L. Smazik5710131111123
LFeb 18 · 17:20P. Provaznik144460L. Smazik331111113
P. Provaznik10
LSep 30 · 11:00P. Provaznik1.9181170T. Hrstka1.801113113LSep 25 · 16:13P. Provaznik1.44691151T. Kanka2.6311119113LSep 25 · 15:45P. Provaznik2.206780L. Kolman1.611111113WSep 25 · 14:15T. Kanka2.631191181P. Provaznik1.4413114103LSep 25 · 13:45A. Pavlik2.1011115113P. Provaznik1.67981141WSep 17 · 16:23R. Merkl1.9111117182P. Provaznik1.80941111113WSep 17 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.83117511113R. Merkl1.8331111682LSep 17 · 14:15P. Provaznik1.738111091V. Lopata2.0011912113WSep 17 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.50111159153P. Hala1.50881111132LSep 16 · 16:14O. Horak1.731111113P. Provaznik2.008860
L. Smazik10
WSep 30 · 10:30J. Simek2.001161011112L. Smazik1.73711129133WSep 25 · 12:38L. Smazik2.201211143Z. Kuksa1.61106120LSep 25 · 11:30Z. Kuksa1.911111113L. Smazik1.808680LSep 25 · 11:00L. Smazik1.83591171M. Svitac1.8311119113LSep 25 · 10:00L. Smazik1.53117691R. Merkl2.3861111113LSep 23 · 12:18L. Smazik1.807290T. Hybl1.911111113LSep 23 · 11:45L. Smazik1.44811321V. Lopata2.6311711113WSep 23 · 10:15T. Hybl1.83391571L. Smazik1.83111113113LSep 23 · 09:45M. Svitac1.91131112113L. Smazik1.801551051LSep 16 · 12:19L. Smazik1.8398110L. Kolman1.831111133
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