TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Pavel Cizek vs Martin Obraz 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118119––––
Martin Obraz
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:19 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timePavel Cizek to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Cizek above · Martin Obraz below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Pavel Cizek at 57.7%
56 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cizek 3–0 Martin Obraz Martin Obraz has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:1957.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Cizek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Cizek
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1335 vs Obraz 1296
Cizek
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 40% vs Obraz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 40% vs Obraz 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek -1 · Obraz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Cizek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cizek form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 1.615 / Obraz 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Cizek)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218544
Cizek1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 12 of 20
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Obraz2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 28 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back27% 10 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back15% 3 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeCizek3wins
AwayObraz0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderCizek leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek2Obraz1n = 3Cizek took 2 of 3
S2Cizek2Obraz1n = 3Cizek took 2 of 3
S3Cizek3Obraz0n = 3Cizek took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricCizekObrazC − OBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match38.728.3+10.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekObrazBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 73 vs 145 / 33443.8%43.4%32 / 73 vs 145 / 334Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CizekCizek 1.61/Obraz 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Cizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 30 · 06:30P. Cizek331111113M. Obraz236890
WSep 16 · 08:34P. Cizek341112113M. Obraz2241080
WSep 16 · 07:30P. Cizek49971111113M. Obraz4011116662
P. Cizek10
LSep 30 · 05:30P. Cizek1.8351111692D. Sabuka1.83115611113WSep 16 · 08:34P. Cizek1.831112113M. Obraz1.8341080WSep 16 · 07:30M. Obraz1.6711116662P. Cizek2.10971111113LSep 16 · 07:00P. Cizek2.3891112862M. Cmil1.531171011113LSep 16 · 06:00P. Cizek2.108670L. Krutina1.671111113LSep 2 · 12:39P. Moulis2.3811121112113P. Cizek1.5381471472LSep 2 · 11:30P. Cizek2.104680J. Jnr1.671111113LSep 2 · 10:30P. Cizek1.83111112642M. Holub1.83941411113WSep 2 · 09:30P. Cizek1.7391111113P. Moulis2.00112791WAug 26 · 09:09M. Snizek1.5731260P. Cizek2.251114113
M. Obraz10
LSep 30 · 06:00A. Dvoracek1.615111112113M. Obraz2.2011741452WSep 24 · 12:13M. Obraz2.2011611113M. Vorel1.61711761LSep 24 · 11:45A. Dvoracek2.201111123M. Obraz1.6189100WSep 24 · 10:45J. Blazek1.73119991M. Obraz2.0051111113LSep 24 · 09:15M. Vorel1.6191111113M. Obraz2.20115571LSep 16 · 08:34P. Cizek1.831112113M. Obraz1.8341080LSep 16 · 07:30M. Obraz1.6711116662P. Cizek2.10971111113LSep 16 · 06:30M. Obraz1.6712118962L. Krutina2.101071111113LSep 16 · 05:30M. Obraz1.576890M. Cmil2.251111113WSep 15 · 12:38M. Obraz1.531111113P. Moulis2.388470
Upcoming Matches
P. Cizek
Nothing scheduled
M. Obraz
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