TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Adam Dvoracek vs Martin Obraz 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Adam Dvoracek
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181191210––––
Martin Obraz
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:03 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMartin Obraz to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Dvoracek above · Martin Obraz below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 61 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Martin Obraz at 58.9%
61 points played in total.
H2H Adam Dvoracek 7–8 Martin Obraz Adam Dvoracek has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:03What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Obraz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvoracek 1399 vs Obraz 1313
Dvoracek
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvoracek 60% vs Obraz 20%
Dvoracek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvoracek 60% vs Obraz 30%
Dvoracek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvoracek +3 · Obraz +1
Dvoracek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Obraz) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Obraz form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvoracek 2.20 / Obraz 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Obraz)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13185557
Dvoracek2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 56 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back29% 20 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back14% 5 of 37
Obraz1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 17 of 29
Up 2–0, closes it83% 10 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it80% 12 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvoracek4wins
AwayObraz6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderObraz leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvoracek75%3 of 4
AwayObraz83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvoracek4Obraz6n = 10Obraz took 6 of 10
S2Dvoracek4Obraz6n = 10Obraz took 6 of 10
S3Dvoracek3Obraz7n = 10Obraz took 7 of 10
S4Dvoracek4Obraz5n = 9Obraz took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvoracekObrazD − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.839.3−4.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvoracekObrazBasisWin rate · lifetime252 / 482 vs 146 / 33852.3%43.2%252 / 482 vs 146 / 338Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ObrazDvoracek 2.20/Obraz 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Obraz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Dvoracek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 9 · 10:45A. Dvoracek199550M. Obraz331111113
LMay 7 · 12:34A. Dvoracek28951131M. Obraz4211119113
LMay 7 · 10:00A. Dvoracek306111031M. Obraz4111712113
LApr 17 · 16:34A. Dvoracek35118881M. Obraz3851111113
WApr 17 · 15:30A. Dvoracek4071111113M. Obraz33116971
WMar 30 · 15:00A. Dvoracek50127911113M. Obraz45101111762
WMar 27 · 17:59A. Dvoracek49126911113M. Obraz46101111682
LMar 27 · 15:00A. Dvoracek28721181M. Obraz3911116113
LMar 6 · 14:04A. Dvoracek291011351M. Obraz4112711113
WMar 6 · 13:00A. Dvoracek4011117113M. Obraz35891171
A. Dvoracek10
WSep 24 · 12:43A. Dvoracek1.67128114113J. Blazek2.10101161152WSep 24 · 10:15M. Vorel1.831241161A. Dvoracek1.8314117113WSep 24 · 09:45J. Blazek2.1071111872A. Dvoracek1.67116911113WSep 17 · 08:58A. Dvoracek1.8311611113J. Hanacek1.83711881LSep 17 · 08:00J. Hanacek2.0011129143A. Dvoracek1.7351011121LSep 17 · 07:00M. Vorel2.0011119113A. Dvoracek1.73661161LSep 17 · 05:30K. Jirousek1.6731112113A. Dvoracek2.101171081WSep 16 · 12:59A. Dvoracek1.7311911113M. Vorel2.00611891LSep 16 · 12:00M. Vorel1.9111911113A. Dvoracek1.80611671WSep 16 · 11:00M. Melisek2.258770A. Dvoracek1.571111113
M. Obraz10
WSep 24 · 12:13M. Obraz2.2011611113M. Vorel1.61711761WSep 24 · 10:45J. Blazek1.73119991M. Obraz2.0051111113LSep 24 · 09:15M. Vorel1.6191111113M. Obraz2.20115571LSep 16 · 08:34P. Cizek1.831112113M. Obraz1.8341080LSep 16 · 07:30M. Obraz1.6711116662P. Cizek2.10971111113LSep 16 · 06:30M. Obraz1.6712118962L. Krutina2.101071111113LSep 16 · 05:30M. Obraz1.576890M. Cmil2.251111113WSep 15 · 12:38M. Obraz1.531111113P. Moulis2.388470LSep 15 · 12:00M. Obraz1.737114151J. Jnr2.0011411173WSep 15 · 10:30P. Moulis2.25118111252M. Obraz1.57311714113
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